Israel Matzav

The West's dream world

The New York Times is reporting that the P-5+1 'powers' have formulated their negotiating position for next week's talks with Iran. While their position is not unreasonable, it seems completely unrealistic that Iran will accept it.

The hard-line approach would require the country’s military leadership to give up the Fordo enrichment plant outside the holy city of Qum, and with it a huge investment in the one facility that is most hardened against airstrikes.

While it is unclear whether the allies would accept anything less than closing and disassembling Fordo, government and outside experts say the terms may be especially difficult for Iran’s leaders to accept when they need to appear strong in the face of political infighting.

Still, Mr. Obama and his allies are gambling that crushing sanctions and the threat of Israeli military action will bolster the arguments of those Iranians who say a negotiated settlement is far preferable to isolation and more financial hardship. Other experts fear the tough conditions being set could instead swing the debate in favor of Iran’s hard-liners.

“We have no idea how the Iranians will react,” one senior administration official said. “We probably won’t know after the first meeting.” But the next round of oil sanctions, he noted, kicks in early this summer.

It's unlikely Iran will accept that demand or further demands that the Times reports such as not enriching any more uranium and giving up all the 20% enriched uranium that it has. The 20% enriched uranium - if there were enough to make a bomb - would give Iran a very quick breakout capability.

But then, the Obama administration's goal may not be to reach a solution, but to keep the 'negotiations' going.

European allies, especially the French and the British, say they are concerned that Mr. Obama will want to keep the negotiations going, however unproductive they might be, through the November presidential election to avoid the possibility of a military strike if the talks fail.

Israel and some European leaders fear that would play into what they perceive as Iran’s strategy to use the talks to buy time while its centrifuges keep spinning.

What could go wrong?

Read the whole thing.

Labels: Iranian nuclear threat, P 5+1

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:54 AM