Israel Matzav: Former top aide to Netanyahu: Israeli attack on Iran would have to be coordinated with the US

Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Former top aide to Netanyahu: Israeli attack on Iran would have to be coordinated with the US

In an interview with the Algemeiner, Eyal Gabbai, a former top aide to Prime Minister Netanyahu, says that any Israeli attack on Iran would have to be coordinated with the United States. But that won't give the US a veto, it won't stop an attack, it won't mean that Israel won't be rewarded for a successful attack and it won't protect Israel from opprobrium in case of - God forbid - failure.

DE: Do you think the Americans and the Israelis will have a similar intelligence analysis, or do you think Israel will say, ‘We have six months’ and America will say, ‘We have six years?’

EG: I think there will not be such a difference. There might be a difference, but very limited. For example, Israel will say six months and the Americans will say 100 percent more, a year. 100 percent more, is double. Nevertheless, it’s only six months’ difference. So they’ll both agree that if further action should be taken it should be now, not in two years from now.

So I don’t think that Netanyahu will ask for the Americans’ contribution; on the other hand, he will need coordination.

DE: In what sense?

EG: You know, there’s a rumor that Israeli airplanes are supposed to go through many countries, and the Americans can and sometimes will be able to shoot a plane that flies through those countries. The coordination needs to be there in order to make sure that there are no accidents.

DE: That they’re aware whose planes they are?

EG: Yeah, exactly, to make sure. So even if there are demands – do you coordinate weeks in advance? Do you coordinate on the same day, the same hour? What exactly are you saying to the Americans, who will probably ask you not to do anything without telling them first. They’ll probably say that in one way or another. This is underneath the open discussions in which they’ll probably discuss sanctions. Could there be more sanctions, what kind of sanctions and do we have enough time for them to work?

When Netanyahu speaks to the Americans, I’m sure he’s not telling them, “Okay, we’re going to use 22 F-15s that are going to take off from Israel at 15:25 and they’re going to use the southeast route.” It’s not like that, certainly not days or weeks in advance.

DE: Not in specific terms, in general terms?

EG: They’ll know in general terms, and the timing will be very close to the operation hour in order that it will not leak and no-one else will find out.

DE: What do you think the Israelis will be looking to come away with from President Obama? (Editors note: in today’s meeting)

EG: I think a time frame, that if by a certain date we aren’t able to bring the operation to a halt, then it means that we can no longer wait, and we need to take further action.

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DE: How big of a consideration for the Israelis is the Obama administration’s position? Once all the facts are on the table. Or is Israel’s interest the only question?

In terms of Iran, Iran is definitely a problem of the world. It’s not just an Israeli problem.

DE: Right. But the question is, who’s going to deal with it?

EG: On the other hand, Hitler was also a problem for the world, and the world stood and tried to fight Hitler, but until they succeeded we paid the price by half of the Jewish people being killed. So the idea that it’s not just an Israeli problem doesn’t say that Israel will not suffer from it the most or that we’ll care the most – or not the most, but Israel will suffer from it severely.

Netanyahu has many factors on the table. One factor is, is there an alternative? Can paralyzing sanctions be enforced? The other question is, can a military action not just be implemented but bring the operation to a halt or delay it for many years, because if all you can earn is a delay of six months, then actually you will have done nothing. The third question is, what will be the outcome in terms of military retaliation by Iran, because it certainly will not be only Iran by itself. It will be Hizbullah and Hamas.

The last question is, what the international reaction will be? I believe that if Netanyahu will succeed, the international reaction will be positive. If he’ll fail, then the international reaction – is not the least, but it’s not the most important consideration, because if we try to strike and we do not succeed, it’s a very expensive price to pay.

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DE: How big of a factor is America’s position? I mean, is it something that can torpedo Israel’s decision?

EG: No, I don’t believe it’s big – they don’t have a veto. And I don’t think that the relationship is one whereby Netanyahu will ask for their permission. On the other hand, they’ll factor in negative opposition. But nevertheless, if Netanyahu will feel, I believe, that there are no other alternatives on the table, he will act. It’s not like three years ago when Netanyahu came to office and demanded paralyzing sanctions, that if enforced at the time, after half a year, a year, you could evaluate the outcome and decide if you want to raise the level of sanctions. We don’t have this time. The timeline is very short.

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DE: And accepting a nuclear Iran, that’s not an option?

EG: It is known that a nuclear Iran will threaten to use the nuclear device. This is not the main issue. The main issue is let’s assume that something erupts with Hizbullah in the North, they start firing rockets, and we are forced to invade Lebanon, for example, and the Iranians say that if we do not withdraw from Lebanon within 24 hours, they’re going to fire an atomic bomb at us. What do we do then? Withdraw? Fight with Iran? Ask the Americans to send us atomic bombs as fast as possible?