Israel Matzav: What does he think we've been doing for the last three years?

Thursday, February 16, 2012

What does he think we've been doing for the last three years?

This is nothing short of amazing. The New York Times publishes a piece by former Obama (and Clinton and Bush) adviser Dennis Ross entitled, alternatively, "Iran is ready to talk" or "Give diplomacy a chance." Just what does he think we've been doing for the last three years?

The Obama administration has now created a situation in which diplomacy has a chance to succeed. It remains an open question whether it will.

Israel worries that it could lose its military option, and it may be reluctant to wait for diplomacy to bear fruit. That said, Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have consistently called for “crippling sanctions,” reflecting a belief that Iran’s behavior could be changed with sufficient pressure. The fact that crippling sanctions have finally been applied means that Israel is more likely to give these sanctions and the related diplomatic offensive a chance to work. And it should.

Still, it is unclear whether Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose regime depends so heavily on hostility to America, is willing to make a deal on the nuclear issue. Nonetheless, Iran is now signaling that it is interested in diplomacy. Its foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, has declared that Iran will resume talks with the five permanent members of the Security Council and the Germans. He recently said that Iran would discuss Russia’s step-by-step proposal to defuse the nuclear standoff, which Iran refused to entertain when a variation of it was first broached last year.

Now, with Iran feeling the pressure, its leaders suddenly seem prepared to talk. Of course, Iran’s government might try to draw out talks while pursuing their nuclear program. But if that is their strategy, they will face even more onerous pressures, when a planned European boycott of their oil begins on July 1.

Moreover, given Mr. Obama’s stated determination to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Iran’s leaders may actually be making the use of force against their nuclear facilities more likely by playing for time.

Iran can have civilian nuclear power, but it must not have nuclear weapons. Ultimately, Ayatollah Khamenei will have to decide what poses a greater threat to his rule: ending his quest for nuclear weapons or stubbornly pursuing them as crippling economic pressures mount.

With Iran reeling from sanctions, the proper environment now exists for diplomacy to work. The next few months will determine whether it succeeds.

If the Obama administration - whose policies Ross had a major role in shaping - really wanted to give diplomacy a chance to succeed, they would (a) let all parties know that if Iran even gets near the point of no return on nuclear weapons, the United States of America is absolutely committed to stopping Iran militarily, and (b) drop the 'right' of Iran to have 'civilian nuclear power.' A rogue state deserves to lose that 'right' (if it ever existed) altogether.

But of course, the Obama administration does not have the courage to stand up to Iran, and cannot expect Israel to be the fall guy for its inept policymaking.

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Iranian nuclear threat