The beginning of the end for Ahmadinejad and Khameni?
Benny Weinthal suggests that the sanctions imposed on Iran by Europe last week may be a watershed in the Iranian regime's ability to survive. While the U.S. and the EU do not advocate regime change in Iran, sanctions could breathe life into Iran’s struggling pro-democracy movement. Contrary to popular belief, robust economic sanctions have not unified the population against the West. Since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rigged the elections of June 2009, the Iranian government has been increasingly unpopular, and the people widely blame it for the country’s worsening economic situation.Well, maybe.
The millions who took to the streets of Tehran in the aftermath of that election arguably constituted the first full-blown Middle Eastern reform movement. Since that time, despotic regimes have fallen in Tunisia and Egypt, and others — like Bashar Assad’s dictatorship in Syria — are on the ropes, but the Iranians have had no such luck. The unprecedented U.S. and European sanctions will not work overnight. By early summer, it will be clearer whether or not they’re changing Iran’s behavior.
Given Chinese and Russian resistance to a seventh round of U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran, the U.S. and its allies will likely have to continue working outside the U.N. The U.N. Charter provides for a comprehensive embargo against a country that violates U.N. resolutions, so the Security Council could issue a “complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations.” But the Russians and the Chinese will surely prevent the U.N. from doing anything of the kind.
It is a vexing predicament for the U.S. and the EU. Apart from Israel, the U.S., the U.K., and the Netherlands are the only three countries that have declared their refusal to live with a nuclear Iran. If these latest sanctions, crushing as they are, prove ineffective, this fall will bring hard decisions.
As we have seen in Egypt and Libya, and to a lesser extent in Tunisia, one of the questions we must ask is who will replace Ahmadinejad and Khameni. One of the flaws of the 'green movement' was that it, too, insisted on continuing to pursue the nuclear program, and there are no guarantees that it would not pursue nuclear weapons as well.
Sure, a dictatorship that holds a nuclear card is much harder to contain when it's also apocalyptic, but we don't really know where the green movement stands and whether it's the answer.
I find far more encouraging statistics that suggest that mosque participation in Iran is much lower than in other Muslim countries (pdf link). It's considered politically incorrect to say it in the West, but for Jews and Christians, Islam is the enemy.
Labels: Green Movement, Iran sanctions regime, Iranian elections
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:28 AM
4 Comments:
I find far more encouraging statistics that suggest that mosque participation in Iran is much lower than in other Muslim countries (pdf link).
You prove how stupid you are Carl.
Iraq was teh most secular country, Saddam despised Islam and was an atheist, yet he and his populace supported Iraq going nuclear.
Iranians if even 100% secular will suport the bomb. Had the Shah and his religion despising rule been in power, I guarentee you Iran would have exploded a bomb by now and been nuclear.
It's considered politically incorrect to say it in the West, but for Jews and Christians, Islam is the enemy.
Tch Tch, ain't it ironic? Despite your best efforts to try to sway Christian opinion, Christians would happily ally themselves with Muslims against Jews :)
Just ask Geert Wilders
Another thing,
Europe and America ( I presume you meant them by 'christians') didn't support sanctions against Iran for Jews, or Israel. No. they supported them because they dont want Iran to disrupt oil flow in the Gulf. For econonimcal reasons, and that going nuclear will destabilise the Middle East.
North Korea is not Muslim.
By the way Carl, tell me what did Geert Wilders acheive for Israel? I know the answer to that, but I want to see what returns you think you got from your 'Facing Jihad 2008 Conference', and how many Europeans, leave alone how many Dutch (lets not even go into Job Cohen's rise) believed your cheap whore, who supported the sechita ban?
Hello kapo?
at the very least the chaos and killing and economic damage caused by an overthrow might make them put an expensive project like making nukes on the back burner or mothball it all together.
"Despite your best efforts to try to sway Christian opinion, Christians would happily ally themselves with Muslims against Jews :)
Just ask Geert Wilders"
In case you can't contact Geert Wilders, ask me. This is one Christian who heartily agrees with Carl. Since you bring up the subject of religion and give us your opinion, Chayma, I'll give you mine.
Islam is, by it's choice as repeatedly expressed in the Koran (which, yes, I've read) the enemy of Judaism and Christianity. I'm not going to go on for pages on that but Sura after Sura expresses venomous Jew-hatred and Christian-hatred.
A believing Christian believes, logically must believe, the same fundamentals as a believing Jew. For starters, all of the Hebrew Bible, from the Torah through every Book in the Masoretic Text, all these are Sacred Scripture, the Revealed Word.
As far as Christians happily allying themselves against Jews and Judaism, any who did so or do so have committed or are committing a terrible sin, for which they will be held accountable. Neither I nor any believing Christians I know hold any such evil desire. We consider Jews as our brothers and sisters. I would, as I think Carl also would, consider Muslims as our brothers and sisters also, if you weren't so busy hating us and trying to kill us. (Yes, yes, I know it's true the vast majority of Muslims aren't terrorists. But it's also true that the vast majority of the world's terrorists are Muslims.)
You might want to read Genesis 12:3 and 17:3-8. Peace.
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