Israel Matzav

US election makes Israeli strike on Iran more likely?

I went for what I thought would be about a three-hour trip to Tel Aviv this afternoon and it turned out to be nearly eight hours. At least it was a for a good cause.

Former State Department Iran expert Mark Fitzpatrick, now at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, says that the fact that 2012 is an election year in the US makes it more likely that Israel will attack Iran without getting the consent of the United States, and also makes it more likely that the United States will not try to shoot down Israel's planes.

Iran insists its nuclear program is for civilian energy only. But Fitzpatrick, who was a State Department official responsible for nuclear non-proliferation, said the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report was damning.

It found that Iran appeared to have worked on designing a nuclear weapon and may be continuing research relevant to that end.

Fitzpatrick said an IAEA governing board meeting on Thursday and Friday in Vienna should demonstrate serious international concern over the findings. But he doubted whether Russia or China would go along with any resolution finding Iran to be in non-compliance with the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

And he said he feared that if countries like Israel that felt most threatened by Iran lost faith in the international community to act firmly, they could act alone.

"When you consider that next year being the US presidential election year, and the dynamics of politics in the United States, this could increase Israel's inclination to take matters into its own hands," Fitzpatrick said.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu might not necessarily ask President Barack Obama for permission to mount a strike, Fitzpatrick said, if Israel believed Iran could acquire a nuclear weapon or place one in a site out of reach.

Netanyahu said on Sunday Iran was closer to getting an atomic bomb than had been thought.

"The most likely possibility is that Mr Netanyahu calls up Obama and says: 'I'm not asking for a green light, I'm just telling you that we've just launched the planes, don't shoot them down'," Fitzpatrick said.

"And in a US presidential election year, I think it's unlikely that Obama would shoot them down." Israel enjoys strong support in the United States among politicians and the public.

Read the whole thing.

It's kind of odd that Fitzpatrick is talking about the possibility of the United States shooting down Israeli planes heading for Iran. If you read my Twitter feed (and if you don't, you should), you already may know that while I was out, I retweeted a tweet by the Washington Post's Jackson Diehl, which points out that if Obama goes through with withdrawing all US troops from Iraq, in six weeks, the most direct route from Israel to Iran will be clear of anti-aircraft fire.

Someone just made the point to me that once the US is out of Iraq in 6 wks the most direct air route from Israel to #Iran will be wide open.

I never thought I would be happy to see a US withdrawal from Iraq. I guess everything has its good points. Heh.

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Iranian nuclear threat, Iraq

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:43 PM