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Saturday, November 26, 2011

All hell breaking loose?

The threats from Iran are coming fast and furious. In fact, they are coming in so many different directions that it's getting kind of hard to keep track of all the threats.

On Friday, Ayatollah Ali Khameini's website published an 'analysis' of the threats facing Iran.
The article details three possible war scenarios Iran could be faced with if Israel or the US proceed with a strike:

1. An all out war of attrition that would combine aerial and ground forces attack.

2. Limited war as a preparatory action for political proceedings. This would include hitting Iran’s control centers for the purpose of disrupting the stability of the Islamic regime. The best case scenario here would be that war leads to the regime's fall; the worst case would see Iran surrendering at the negotiating table.

3. A war on specific targets with the aim of destroying the regime's assault capabilities, especially against the "Zionist regime."

The Iranian commentator goes on to assess the possibility of likelihood of each scenario. He believes the feasibility of the first option is due, among other things to the fact that "the western countries' capabilities to carry out such a complex operation are very limited and nearly nonexistent."

Mohebian also mentioned the upcoming US presidential elections and the fact that the west doesn't have sufficient intelligence on Iran. In light of these problems Mohebian believes that the chances of an all out war against Iran are close to nothing.

He goes on to point out the main problems of the second and third scenarios: The Iranian regime is prepared for an attack on its centers of power, the Iranian response to such an attack could be unexpected, the attack could turn the regime to an even more extreme path and encourage it to set the Middle East on fire, which would endanger the western world.

Mohebian claims that even the third and most likely scenario has a relatively small likelihood of happening. He notes that the scenario's execution would be complicated. It would be impossible to attack all of the country's nuclear facilities due to its size; a limited war could develop into a regional war.
On Saturday, Iran threatened to hit Israel's nuclear plant in Dimona if Israel attacked Iran.
Former head of the Guards' Political Bureau Brigadier Yadollah Javani said, "If Israel fires [a] rocket at one of our nuclear facilities or vital centers, it should know that any point of Israel, such as its nuclear facilities, would be a target for our rockets and we have [that] capability," Iranian news agency ISNA reported.

"Today, our enemies have been locked in a quagmire and they see no way out, so they make contradictory comments," he contended. "They raise military threats against Iran whereas they do not possess such a capability."
Curiously, Iran also threatened Turkey (Hat Tip: Joshua I).
A senior commander of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard says the country will target NATO's missile defense shield in Turkey if the US or Israel attacks the Islamic Republic.

Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Guards' aerospace division, is quoted by the semiofficial Mehr news agency as saying the warning is part of a new defense strategy to counter what it sees as an increase in threats from the US and Israel.

...

"Should we be threatened, we will target NATO's missile defense shield in Turkey and then hit the next targets," the semiofficial Mehr news agency quoted Hajizadeh as saying.

Tehran says NATO's early warning radar station in Turkey is meant to protect Israel against Iranian missile attacks if a war breaks out with the Jewish state. Ankara agreed to host the radar in September as part of NATO's missile defense system aimed at countering ballistic missile threats from neighboring Iran.
Is Iran starting to realize that the sky is falling?

By the way, Israel quietly took delivery on a shipment of Patriot missiles in the past few weeks.

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