Will a Democrat challenge Obama?Usually an incumbent US President is virtually automatic as a nominee for reelection. In fact, the last incumbent President who faced a challenge was - you guessed it - Jimmy Carter.
Will Barack Hussein Obama face a challenge? Seven out of ten Democrats still want to see him nominated - but that's a decline of 11% since June.
Despite the decline, history is on Obama's side. "In 1994, only 57% of Democrats wanted the party to renominate Bill Clinton, and he went on to win the nomination and a second term two years later," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.Well, yes, but this is not two years before the election. It's fifteen months before the election. And Obama is trending downward.
Without a prominent primary challenger, Obama's bid for re-election seems to be safe for now. But of those losing faith, the poll reveals that moderate Democrats are more likely than liberals to say the party should nominate someone else and younger Democrats are more likely to favor a new nominee than those who are older.
The CNN/ORC International poll was conducted by telephone from August 5-7 among 462 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. It has a sampling error of plus-or-minus 4.5 percentage points.
Will Israel play a role in all this? It might. If estimates are correct that Obama's foul treatment of Israel will result in a drop in fundraising for the Democratic National Committee, that could create a bid for a challenger even if only to try to preserve the Democrats' position in Congress.