Israel Matzav

The coming intifada

Jonathan Schanzer discusses the likelihood of another 'Palestinian' intifada (uprising) when the bid for unilateral 'statehood' fails in September.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, architect of the statehood drive, is also pushing for the protests. With plans to retire soon, he views the UN maneuver as his legacy to the Palestinian cause.

He insists that the rallies be peaceful -- but, as Palestinian columnist Daoud Kuttab warned recently, "If this [UN] path is blocked, there is no telling which route the Palestinians will take."

Actually, it's pretty easy to guess the route: another intifada, the same route the Palestinians took in 1987 and 2000. Both uprisings yielded more bloodshed than either side could bear.

Leaders of Hamas (which controls Gaza), Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other terror groups are now openly preparing for just that. Committed to Israel's destruction, they welcome any chance to mobilize large crowds for their violent aims. Journalist Walla Karaja confirms that "the military trainings have increased in the [Gaza] Strip, and we heard that huge quantities of weapons arrived from the outside."

"Outside" is code for Iran, the chief source of Palestinian weapons. Tehran would love to draw attention from the bloody protests against its ally in Syria and direct the Muslim world's anger, conveniently, back to the Palestinian problem.

For that matter, some Arab states would also welcome a new intifada, to draw fire away from their own embattled regimes.

Will the Palestinians oblige? While many wish to live in peace, many others surely want the Palestinian issue back on center stage after the Arab Spring.

A poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion in May showed that more than 70 percent of Palestinians think a new uprising is around the corner.

Many Facebook pages have popped up in recent months calling for orchestrated Palestinian uprisings against Israel. (One enterprising radical even created a "Third Palestinian Intifada" iPhone app, which Apple later removed.)

Former Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz last week announced that the country will call up military reservists in advance of the UN vote. "A sufficient quantity of nonlethal anti-riot ammunition has been procured," adds another senior official, and "units underwent training, simulating possible real intifada events."

Some attempt at creating violent protests is likely in the aftermath of the UN vote. Whether the IDF can contain it within Judea, Samaria and Gaza, and keep it from spilling into other parts of the country (including by containing 'Israeli Arabs') remains to be seen. Hopefully, both Barak and Netanyahu have learned from Barak's failure to respond forcefully and immediately when the 'Palestinians' started the last intifada in 2000.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Palestinian state RIGHT NOW syndrome, Third intifada, unilateral declaration of statehood

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:59 PM