Israel Matzav

Gallup poll shows Jewish support for Obama down to 60%

Is the Jewish American voting glass half empty to half full? There's a new Gallup poll out that surveys Jewish support for Barack Hussein Obama.

Over at Hot Air, they think the glass is half empty (Hat Tip: Shy Guy).

In general, the poll confirms what Ed said earlier:

The Jewish vote won’t suddenly swing to the GOP, for reasons that have nothing to do with Obama. Jewish voters tend to be more progressive; the Democratic Party is a more natural home for them. While there may be some truth in the notion that African-Americans are naturally more conservative and could be won over with a more concerted effort by Republicans to address their issues through debate (as Jack Kemp tried), that’s almost certainly not true of Jewish voters as a bloc. The GOP position on Israel might be a better fit, but on domestic politics, they’ll keep voting Democratic.

But the official affirmation of Jewish support the poll provides is still good news for Obama, who needs every bit of approval he can muster heading into a difficult reelection. Of course, he especially needs any approval that will translate to campaign cash — and whether this poll actually contradicts what some have said, that the crucial category of politically active Jews are less enthused about Obama than ever before, remains to be seen. After all, the poll didn’t specifically seek out Jewish Americans noted for political involvement. It could be the (randomized) sample that so strongly supports Obama just happens to barely vote, let alone donate.

At the JPost, the glass is half full (Hat Tip: Sparky the Wonder Dog).

“The level of Jewish support Obama received in the last election is not guaranteed for 2012,” said Larry Grossman, director of publications and a senior official at American Jewish Committee, regarding the poll.

“He’ll still get the majority of the Jewish vote, the question is will there be backsliding from the very high percentage he got last time? This might be significant in swing-states with large Jewish populations, although it’s too early to make definitive pronouncements at this stage of the game,” Grossman added.

According to the poll results, Obama’s foreign policy address to the US State Department on May 19 did not have a major impact on Jewish opinion, despite the negative reaction from Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to Obama’s support in his speech for a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians based on the pre-1967 lines.

At the time, the president’s job approval rating in general, and among Jews, was artificially high at 68 percent, following the killing of al-Qaida leader Osama Bin Laden. According to Gallup, Obama’s 45-day average job approval rating among Jews before his speech was 65 percent, and 62 percent in the following 45 days, a decline falling within the 6-point margin of error for the poll.

The continuing fall in Jewish support for Obama might also be significant regarding the level of contributions Jewish Democratic donors will provide for the 2012 presidential campaign.

Obama hasn't quite dropped to Jimmy Carter 1980 levels of support, but there's still time for that. Of course, for that to happen, a third party candidate may be required.

As the article points out (and as I have discussed before), the Jewish community may not support Obama financially. That's very important, because in the 2008 elections, Jews provided about 60% of the Democrats' money.This time they nay not even do that. The money may not come at all.

Heh.

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Jewish vote

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:31 PM