Israel Matzav

What's at stake in Bahrain

DEBKA explains why the protests in Bahrain are different than anyplace else.

Al-Khalifa has two major difficulties to crack: For the first time, the king's biggest Shiite party, al-Wefaq has joined up with all 10 opposition parties to coordinate their protest action. The Shiite party leader, Sheik Ali Salman, says he is not seeking to establish an Islamic regime in Manama like the one in Tehran. debkafile's sources say he is after one-man rule for himself and his words are about as reliable as the pledges of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood to eschew a role in government.

But the Bahraini ruler's most acute problem is that while the Arabic and world media lump the protest movement in his kingdom with the pro-democracy uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, it is not the same in that it does not just represent genuine people power fighting an autocratic regime for reforms, but is fomented from Tehran.

Iran's objective is to overthrow the Al-Khalifa regime and replace it with the first pro-Iranian government in the Arabian Gulf region. A Shiite regime in Manama will stir the Shiite minorities to revolt in other oil-rich Gulf states - and especially in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, where they make up around one-fifth of the population.

And Iran isn't the only one with a stake in Bahrain.

The violence has got many people outside the Middle East looking at the island state for the first time. But does it matter to business and investors?

The answer is yes. Not so much because Bahrain is a financial centre and home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet. But because Bahrain has the potential – belied by its tiny size – to inspire political ructions in Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer. That explains why the protests have exacerbated jitters in the Middle East’s already shaky stock markets.

The Bahrain protests are led by resentful Shia Muslims, who live in the only country in the world where a Shia majority population is ruled by a Sunni minority. They make up 60 to 70 per cent of the population and are demanding more political freedom from the ruling al-Khalifa family.

The family has close relations with Saudi Arabia’s Sunni rulers (part of the majority in that country) and it is via Sunni-Shia relations that events in Bahrain could have repercussions in Saudi Arabia, which is connected to Bahrain by the 25km King Fahd Causeway.

For an update on the protests in Bahrain, let's go to the videotape.



The government of Bahrain isn't going anywhere yet, but that's what people thought about the Mubarak government in Egypt two weeks ago.

Read the whole thing.

Labels: Bahrain, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Shiites v. Sunnis

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:41 AM