Al-Qaeda is reeling
Al-Qaeda is reeling from the revolutions that have taken place in the Arab world over the past couple of weeks. One of al-Qaeda's raisons d'etre is to replace the Arab world's secular dictatorships with Islamic Caliphates. The dictatorships are falling in mostly (except in Libya) non-violent uprisings. Terrorism analysts believe al Qaeda's senior leadership is reeling. In some ways, the largely nonviolent, secular and pro-democracy revolts amount to a rejection of the group's core beliefs. They were also successful.Read the whole thing.
"It's not just a defeat. It's a catastrophe, the worst thing that has happened since al Qaeda was created," said Jean-Pierre Filiu, an expert on al Qaeda and affiliated groups at the University of Sciences Po in Paris.
President Barack Obama alluded to this notion last week, when he said during a press conference: "I also think an important lesson … that we can draw from this is, real change in these societies is not going to happen because of terrorism. … It's going to happen because people come together and apply moral force to a situation."
How significant a blow al Qaeda will take from the current unrest will be in part determined by how the leaders of the Middle East adapt. A harsh crackdown from the remaining regimes could fuel the group's narrative of oppression. A swift and successful transition to democracy, particularly in Egypt, could do much the opposite. Additionally, the unrest in Libya could provide an opening for extremist Islamists in the eastern part of the country to reassert themselves.
But even the rise of Islamist political parties in countries such as Egypt wouldn't be a win for al Qaeda—the terrorist group is bitter enemies with the Muslim Brotherhood. And in countries such as Yemen, where al Qaeda today has a much stronger operational foothold, terrorism analysts highlight the secular nature of recent protests and conclude that al Qaeda's message doesn't have much grassroots appeal.
Labels: al-Qaeda, Arab democracy, Ayman al-Zawahri, Osama Bin Laden
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:08 AM
1 Comments:
Al Qaeda represents a very extreme Salafist variant of Islam. That's small comfort considering other Islamists waiting in the wing as nearly as extreme.
And democracy, as Barry Rubin has presciently observed, does not necessarily mean moderate and friendly governments are going to emerge in the Arab World and there is no mention in the mainstream media in the West of the fascist, extremist and jihadist orientation of the Muslim Brotherhood.
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