Why Hezbullah cares about the Special Tribunal findings
Some of you have asked in the comments - and others may be wondering - why Hezbullah cares about the findings of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. After all, Hezbullah has a stronger army than the Lebanese Armed Forces and could easily take over the country if they chose to do so.Yaakov Katz explains why they care anyway.
It is important to understand why Nasrallah is so concerned with the findings of the Hague-based tribunal: If Hizbullah is found guilty, as expected, of assassinating Hariri it would contradict the image it has tried to create over the years as being the defender of Lebanon. If it was defending Lebanon, why did it assassinate the country’s former prime minister?And that explains why starting a war with Israel could be to Hezbullah's benefit. It allows them to promote themselves as the protectors of the Lebanese people.
The problem for Hizbullah is that toppling the Lebanese government does not ensure that this “defender” image will be retained. What it is trying to do instead is force the current prime minister Saad Hariri to denounce the tribunal’s findings and clear Hizbullah’s name.
The other problem is that the tribunal’s expected announcement will come at a time when Hizbullah-Iranian relations are at a new low. Iran has cut the annual budget it provides Hizbullah by over 40 percent and tensions are running high between the top Hizbullah leadership and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officer who was appointed earlier this year to oversee Hizbullah operations on behalf of the Islamic Republic.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbullah, Rafik al-Hariri, Saad Hariri, Special Tribunal for Lebanon
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 3:46 PM
2 Comments:
Interesting angle on this. My feelings are that Hezbollah don't really care about the findings, as it will be short-term disadvantage anyway.
The Shia have ethnically cleansed southern Lebanon, brought in a foreign militia, expelled US and French forces there in the early '80s as well as provoking Israel into conflict with them. And Hezbollah has defied several UN resolutions, committed war crimes and assassinated an elected prime minister, all with the international backing of the left.
In effect, everything - and more - they accuse Israel of doing.
Personally, I think Hezbollah has left the ruling coalition because Iran has reduced their funding; by effecting something akin to a coup détat and taking control of the entire country's economy, their funding will increase exponentially.
They most probably will need a war with Israel to justify such action, though.
Hmmmm. Nope, still not getting it. "Image"? If wikileaks have done nothing else, they have shown a certain "secret" logic among the world's underlying understanding of the bullyboys, thugs, and mafioso of the world. Given that they have lived under the cloud of the Argentina bombing for all these years with no adverse consequences, there has to be something else going on with this. I don't think these people care about their "image" internationally other than that, like all the godfathers, they do enough horrible stuff to keep people afraid of them. That's why the press and other public narratives don't match the wikileaks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_AMIA_bombing
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