Israel Matzav

Who's next?

After the fall of Tunisia, Elliott Abrams wonders who's next.

Egypt is a closer case, for the possible candidacy of President Mubarak’s son Gamal to be his successor would suggest a move from military to familial rule. As there are no term limits in Egypt, were the 47-year-old Gamal to run and win in this year’s presidential election he could follow his father’s 30 years in power with 30 of his own. Moreover, there are persistent stories about corruption in the Mubarak family and the wealth of his sons, and widespread corruption throughout the regime. Here we get closer to the kind of powder that exploded in Tunisia. Libya is a special case due to the unique character of Muammar Qadhafi, but here too rule is less institutional than personal and familial: his sons hold central positions in the regime. Syria is a classic case of familial rule by a son following his father as president for life, but the organs of repression are especially vicious and regime control over them seems strong. If the Tunisian revolt is going to spread, Egypt and Libya are likely the best candidates.

Why not Jordan or Morocco, which are mentioned in some news stories, or the Gulf kingdoms and sheikdoms? I would argue that the issue here is perceived legitimacy. Such systems have two advantages: that the monarch is often viewed as a legitimate ruler who stands above politics, and that the blame for poor governance (inefficiency, corruption, repression) can be cast onto the ministers—who can then be replaced.

He's right about Egypt and Libya, but I would also rate Jordan as a possibility to fall. That's not because of its monarchy, but due to tribal conflict.

Read the whole thing.

Labels: Egypt, Elliott Abrams, Jordanian King Abdullah, Libya, Tunisia

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:23 PM