Israel Matzav

When rockets fall in MyBackYard

Until Operation Cast Lead came along and changed the subject, I frequently wrote posts that argued that the government was ignoring the constant rocket attacks on Sderot and other towns within the 'Gaza envelope' because those areas were NotInMyBackYard. For those of you who are relatively new, here's how the argument went:

Can anyone imagine Olmert reacting this way if it were Tel Aviv under fire? But Sderot is mostly poor, mostly Sephardi and mostly Likud voters, while Tel Aviv is mostly wealthy, mostly Ashkenazi and mostly votes for parties on the left. In other words, Sderot is NotInMyBackYard. And so Sderot suffered from one rocket after another last week - minus the 3000 residents who have left to become refugees like those expelled from Gaza, while Olmert sipped champagne with George and Condi.

Operation Cast Lead changed all that, and the reason it happened was that the 'Palestinians' started to hit cities like Ashkelon, which has an ethnic and class makeup that is much more similar to Tel Aviv than to Sderot, not to mention some very key pieces of infrastructure.

Unfortunately, the Olmert-Barak-Livni government didn't have the intestinal fortitude to do what needed to be done to finish the job in Gaza. That allowed Hamas to regroup, and now Hamas - and for that matter Hezbullah - are both able to hit Tel Aviv. Our home front command is now warning that when and if there is another war, Tel Aviv and its environs will be hit.

"Dozens of missiles of all kinds will land on Tel Aviv, and therefore the estimation is that hundreds will die and structures and infrastructure will be destroyed," Colonel Adam Zussman was quoted by Army Radio as saying.

Zussman's comments came on the twentieth anniversary of the first Scud missiles falling on central Israel at the start of the first Gulf War in January 1991.

Zussman addressed the dangers of having Israel's major economic institutions such as the Stock Market in Ramat Gan under attack and the chance that such a situation could paralyze the nation during a war.

"I'm interested in our banks and economy continuing to function. We need to prepare alternatives as soon as as possible," said Zussman.

Zussman stated that he did not wish to alarm the residents of Tel Aviv and the Dan region, but rather to make them understand that the threat is a real possibility. This will compel the public to prepare their gas masks and bomb shelters, he added.

"There is no doubt that the first missile that lands in Tel Aviv will frighten those sitting in coffee shops today, but with our instructions and our citizens' good discipline, the estimation is that the initial shock will pass," Zussman stated.

The Home Front Command expressed that they do not support evacuating residents from central Israel in the event of a future war.

In the event of a war that hits Tel Aviv, the last one out will be asked to turn off the lights. There is little doubt in my mind that people will evacuate on their own, and Jerusalem and (ironically) Judea and Samaria will be mobbed because they will be the safest places to be.

Of one thing, however, you can rest assured: If Tel Aviv is hit, you will see a response that will make you all forget that Richard Goldstone was ever here.

While Sderot sustained rocket attacks for eight years until the military and political conditions “were ripe” for a retaliatory strike in Gaza, Tel Aviv will not sustain such attacks for eight days; not even for eight hours.

In order to put an immediate end to missile attacks on central Israel – regardless of where they originated: Syria, Lebanon, or Gaza – we will see massive retribution that will make Operation Cast Lead appear like a tiny scratch in the Middle East’s violent history.

...

Israel’s enemies are counting on Goldstone: They will fire missiles at Tel Aviv, and the world will stop Israel from punishing them for deterrence purposes. Yet they’re wrong.

Israel would not be able to afford to wait for its ground forces to successfully operate in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, or any other site in order to curb the fire. Time is a critical element, and a successful ground operation is a matter of days or weeks, which means more casualties and more critical hits sustained by the home front. The hundreds of rockets that will penetrate through the Israeli-American defense systems will require Israel to respond immediately.

And here the formula is cruel and simple: The more effective the rocket terror war will be, the less “proportional” the response would be.

Under such circumstances, we will see a massive retaliatory blow, from the air and from the ground, targeting various infrastructures and sites and being painful enough to prompt the enemy to hold its fire. If the world expects Israel to only hit military targets and chase every rocket or launching site, it expects Israel to commit suicide.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Kassam rockets, NotInMyBackYard, Richard Goldstone, Sderot, Tel Aviv

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:09 PM