Could Dahlan's removal be a positive event?
Elliott Abrams believes that the actions taken by the 'Palestinian Authority' against Mohamed Dahlan might have a positive side. To me, this episode is a reminder of two things: First, that Fatah remains in disarray. All efforts at serious reform and modernization have failed. Last year, Fatah called off local elections in the PA once again, mostly because it was simply unready. Presidential and parliamentary elections are long overdue. If there is ever to be a stable and democratic Palestinian state, it will need democratic parties that can win elections. Fatah today is not able to do that.Well, maybe. Is Abu Mazen Fatah or is he Fayyad? If Abrams is right (and I believe he is), there is currently a huge difference between the two.
Second, that the gap between Fatah and the Palestinian Authority remains significant—and indeed is growing. Dahlan was a Fatah security guy, who handled the various gangs Arafat had created and played off against each other. He never had a role in the increasingly professional PA security system. That system reports to Prime Minister Fayyad, has been trained mostly by the United States, has brought law and order to the streets of the West Bank, and works closely with the Israelis to stop terror. People like Dahlan and other former Arafat cronies, raised with the corruption and disarray of Arafat’s satrapy, have no role and no future in the PA. That’s why there remains considerable tension between Fayyad and Fatah, and great resentment toward him on the part of the Fatah grandees. Instead of claiming partial credit for his achievements, they try endlessly to grab PA jobs and get back to the good old days when they had a finger in the pie. If the Dahlan story helps show that the old days are over, it will be a positive event.
At the end of the day, will those American-trained troops be willing to go to battle against old Fatah cronies like Dahlan? Maybe. But based on past experience, it's far more likely that the Dayton forces (as the US-named troops are called) are brothers, sons, cousins and uncles of the Fatah cronies. While they would fit with Israelis and might fight with Hamas, they are unlikely to fight with Fatah cronies.
Labels: Dayton forces, Elliott Abrams, Mahmoud Abbas, Mohamed Dahlan, Salam Fayyad
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:34 PM
2 Comments:
yeah, Abbas is either straddling the line or unwilling to give up Fatah's most recrudescent ideology. Unfortunately it is Abbas and Erkhat who are pulling that wagon and the PLO continues its unilateral policy of isolating, delegitimating, and subverting Israel at the UN, internationally, and in reservoirs of support such as the United States.
The real problem with Fatah itself is dominated by anti-Israel hardliners. There are a handful of moderates but they are not influential and do not set policy. The principal reason peace is not at hand in the Middle East is Fatah is not ready to forswear its anti-Israel ideology. Until that happens, no successful peace negotiations can ever take place.
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