Israel Matzav

Saudis feared US would abandon them

In a January 2009 meeting at the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Riyadh among Netherlands Ambassador Ron Strikker, Russian Ambassador Victor Gibinvish, US Embassy Riyadh Pol/Mil Counselor Scott McGehee and Dr. Prince Turki Al-Kabeer, Saudi Undersecretary for Multilateral Affairs, the Saudis expressed concern that the United States would abandon them to a nuclear Iran (Hat Tip: Martin Kramer). This meeting took place four days after President Obama was inaugurated.

Prince Turki warned that if Iran tried to produce nuclear weapons, other countries in the Gulf region would be compelled to do the same, or to permit the stationing of nuclear weapons in the Gulf to serve as a deterrent to the Iranians. Turki then pointedly demanded that the US keep Saudi officials informed about US plans for Iran.

2. (C) Dr. Prince Turki is not a decision-maker, but he is a reliable transmitter of official Saudi thinking. Most of what he said is not new, although this is the most explicit mention we have heard of Saudi willingness to see nuclear weapons deployed in the GCC as a deterrent to Iran. His concern that the United States will negotiate a "grand bargain" with Iran without consulting Saudi Arabia is a concern we have heard often in recent weeks. End summary & comment.

3. (C) After hearing a brief verbal demarche from Ambassador Strikker on the upcoming June Plenary of the GICNT, Dr. Turki turned to [Russian] Ambassador Gibinvish, saying, "On this issue, what concerns us most is how to get our neighbor to change its policy on enrichment." Iran needs to be convinced to enter a dialogue on this matter, he continued, noting that Saudi Arabia is also concerned about the Russian-built reactor at Bushehr. A leakage from a plant at that location could bring an environmental catastrophe to Saudi Arabia, pointing out that it is located less than 300 kilometers away from Saudi shores, across open water.

4. (C) Ambassador Gibinvish was able to say only "Sure, I agree!" before Prince continued, "The location is so dangerous! Not just to us, but to the world economy!" He urged that Russia use its influence to have the reactor moved north, suggesting that a location on the shore of the Caspian Sea would be much better, where there is water available for reactor cooling, and where mountains rise behind to contain any possible leakage from moving south. Perhaps more troubling, he said, is Iran's pursuit of nuclear enrichment. He explained that if Iran tries to produce nuclear weapons, other countries in the Gulf region would be compelled to do the same, or to permit the stationing of nuclear weapons in the Gulf to serve as a deterrent to the Iranians.

5. (C) Amb. Gibinvish responded that Iran's desire to enrich uranium reflected its fears that it will someday be attacked by Israel or the United States and also a sign of Iran's desire to establish its "supremacy" in the region. Prince Turki interjected: "And we cannot accept Iranian supremacy in the region. We are okay with nuclear electrical power and desalination, but not with enrichment." He said that the prospect of Iranian enrichment raises troubling questions about their motivations for doing so: "they do not need it!"

More proof that it's not Israel that is pushing the US the hardest to deal with Iran. In fact, given what we know now about how hard the Saudis have been pushing, I'm more surprised the US has not done anything.

If the rumors are true, Israel has had nuclear weapons since the 1960's. If it were going to carry out an unprovoked attack on Iran, it would have done so a long time ago.

Labels: Iranian nuclear program, Saudi Arabia

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:26 PM