Obama to pressure Israel harder?
Rachel Ehrenfeld makes the case that President Obama will increase pressure on Israel for a 'Palestinian state' now that it is less likely that he will get his domestic agenda passed. Obama’s defeat also reinforces the already widespread international contempt for this Administration’s lack of resolve. This deterioration could nevertheless spur this ambitious president to leave his mark on world affairs.Will this happen? I think it depends on whether Obama still believes he has a chance of being re-elected (in which case he will be more cautious) or whether he believes that it's all over (in which case he is likely to go for broke). Remember the last three weeks of the Clinton administration? Imagine two years of that.
Withdrawing from Afghanistan and appeasing the Taliban, North Korea, Iran and Venezuela will not suffice. But perusing the ill-conceived “peace plan” in the Middle East – pressuring Israel to freeze construction in areas claimed by the Palestinians, give up large parts of its territory, and recognize Hamas – seem to fit the bill.
The general opinion in Israel seems to support the notion that the changes in the House will do little to change Obama’s aspiration to create a Palestinian state.
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One hopes that the Republican House will use its power of the purse to constrain Obama’s ability to spend American taxpayers’ money on foreign aid to the bottomless Palestinian money pit. The Europeans, Saudis and Iran – all funders of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, and proponents of an independent Palestinian state, will happily take over the U.S. role. But Obama will do his best to keep his position as the “peace-maker.”
He will continue to ignore the Palestinians repeated declarations in their Arabic language propaganda that Israel doesn’t have the right to exist. He will continue to turn a blind eye to their children television shows which are filled with programs calling for jihad and killing Jews. Instead, Obama will continue to argue that it is possible to reason with people who insist on killing you.
Most Palestinians demands have been met by this, and previous American Administrations. They received billions of dollars in aid and successfully generated pressure on Israel for further harmful concessions. The Palestinians have gotten used to claiming that Israel is the obstacle for peace, and subsequent American Administrations, and in particular this Administration, went along with the charade, blaming the Israelis. Yet, Obama’s plans for peace in the Middle East, and his approach towards Israel, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan did not win him friends or respect in the Arab/Muslim world.
But a weak Obama at home should not be underestimated. He would surely use his office to exert significant power abroad, and perhaps force Israel to make dangerous concessions.
Labels: Barack Obama, domestic weakness, foreign policy, legacy, Palestinian state
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:54 PM
2 Comments:
Eric Cantor is opening his campaign to the House Majority Leader--the dynamics in the House (and the new Senate) argue against the President applying that much pressure on Israel--though Administrative reps could, in theory, let the PLO carry the ball in the UN--but the prez may not want to. Keep in mind that Indyk and Ross may be replacing the Mitchell staff and reports here indicate that Bibi is still in close coordination with the US (that doesn't have to be read as capitulationist--even informal continuation of the freeze will have its own strings attached). Maybe it's time to let things play out for a couple of months. If the conceptzia is a complete Gush Emuniim techiya in Yesha, no.
It depends on whether Obama wants to spend time on an intractable problem with no political benefit when he has his hands full fending off a newly emboldened and empowered GOP at home.
In my view, a weakened Obama is better for Israel than a powerful one.
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