Israel Matzav

Syria still believes it's entitled to sovereignty over Lebanon

Writing in the Emirates' English-language daily, the National, the Beirut Daily Star's Michael Young says that Syria has never given up its dreams of hegemony over Lebanon.

The notion that Syria has reconciled itself with a sovereign Lebanon is an illusion. Mr Assad doesn’t have his army in the country anymore, but a Syrian military return could not be ruled out in the aftermath of a devastating war between Hizbollah and Israel.

Such a war, it if occurs and lasts longer than the 2006 conflict, would have repercussions to Syria’s advantage. The damage wrought would discredit the Lebanese state; a conflict would wreck the UN security architecture in south Lebanon; Hizbollah, if it is not defeated outright, and it cannot be, would fight on and come to be viewed in the Arab world, Israel and the West as a major nuisance needing to be brought to heel. Mr Assad could be tempted to use all of this to engineer a Syrian military comeback, arguing that Syria alone can stabilise Lebanon.

Mr Assad lost Lebanon in 2005, and it never went down well with the Syrian leader that he squandered a valuable inheritance his late father had spent years fighting to earn. The Syrians are systematic. In the past year they have co-opted or isolated their Lebanese foes. They have also tried to regain ground on Iran and Hizbollah, partners to be sure but also obstacles to the total control Syria once enjoyed over Lebanon. Mr Hariri, encouraged by his Saudi Arabian sponsors, has gone along with this, mainly to counterbalance Tehran’s influence.

The Lebanese prime minister knows that this complex game may have dire consequences. He is under no illusion about Mr Assad’s intentions, but has swallowed the bitter pill of reconciliation with Damascus to defend himself against his most immediate worry, Hizbollah.

I don't buy the notion that Israel cannot completely defeat Hezbullah. We can if we go all out and don't try to play it cute like Olmert, Halutz and Peretz did four years ago.

And if we attack Syria at the same time (as the Bush administration wanted us to do four years ago), maybe the Syrians won't be able to insert themselves into the vacuum left by Hezbullah either.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:14 PM