Israel Matzav

Good news: Iran has made significant advances in centrifuge technology

U.N. nuclear monitors have not been allowed to examine the new centrifuge, which Iranian officials briefly put on display at a news conference last month. But an expert group's analysis of the machine -- based on photos -- suggests that it could be up to five times as productive as the balky centrifuges Iran currently uses to enrich uranium.

Assuming the country has so far produced only prototypes of the centrifuge, it will probably take two years, or more, for Iran to assemble enough machines to make sufficient enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. After that, though, Iran would be in a position to ramp up production dramatically, depending on how many machines it decides to install.

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Iran's progress on a new centrifuge coincides with a marked decline in activity at its two known uranium-enrichment plants, sources said, spurring speculation that it plans to use the machine at a still-unknown facility.

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The new machine displayed by Iran leaps ahead by at least two generations, according to diplomatic sources and nuclear experts. One diplomat said the machine on display was "probably an IR5," adding that the U.N. officials do not know how Iran developed the centrifuge or who might have provided assistance.

"We don't know where these are supposed to be going," the official said.

An analysis by the nonprofit Institute for Science and International Security concluded that the new machine is made of rare, hard-to-make metals such as carbon fiber and has been substantially redesigned to increase efficiency. Although Iran has offered no test data, the machine appears "theoretically capable" of producing enriched uranium at a rate five times as fast as the IR1, the Washington-based nuclear research group said.

David Albright, president of ISIS and co-author of the analysis, said it is legitimate to suspect that a centrifuge plant is under construction, though it is unclear where Iran would acquire the uranium feedstock to use in such a facility. After being forced to acknowledge the existence of the Qom site, Iran may well have decided to start another enrichment plant to keep its nuclear options open, he said.

"The logic is that, if a site is discovered, start building another one or two," Albright said.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:44 AM