Israel Matzav

Kouchner: No Iran sanctions until at least June

One of the many downsides of the Obama administration's obsessive focus with bullying Israel on the 'Palestinian' question is that other, more important issues are being ignored. Like Iran. The European foreign ministers gathered in Finland this past weekend, and while they too took the time to threaten Israel, they also discussed sanctioning Iran, which is a threat to their interests as well. Bottom line: French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner believes it will be at least June before sanctions are in place, and even that sounds optimistic.

Citing objections from China and Russia, Kouchner said: “We are … talking and talking, trying to get an agreement by negotiation and at the same time working on sanctions. I believe that yes, before June it will be possible, but I’m not so sure.”

Nor is there certainty about the alternative – which, according to the news report, would be unilateral sanctions by the EU and the U.S.

Clearly, there are obstacles on the road to unilateral sanctions – philosophically, many EU countries oppose unilateralism and wish to proceed only after the UN has given the green light. Then, there is the skepticism about sanctions that are not binding on some of Iran’s main trading partners because such measures would fail to bite.

In short, sanctions, even limited ones, are a long way away, and it does not offer any succor to know that EU ministers are “talking about it.”

The Europeans genuinely want to sanction Iran (recall how it was the Europeans who insisted on making a big deal about the Qom nuclear facility). They've seen the map and they know that Iran could eventually reach them. They have three problems: First, they don't want to do it unilaterally because they are constitutionally reluctant to act unilaterally. Second, they fear that sanctioning Iran without the United Nations will mean that China, Russia, Switzerland and other countries will take over their business interests in Iran. Third, they're afraid that sanctions will be a step towards war, and the Europeans don't want to fight another war.

On the other hand, the Obama administration has no interest in enacting real sanctions against Iran. It's more interested in bullying Israel, which Obama has made the centerpiece of his foreign policy. While the Congress keeps trying to take action, the Obama administration keeps throwing monkey wrenches into the wheel, trying to keep the door open for their failed 'engagement' policy. Obama is as constitutionally incapable of acting unilaterally as are the Europeans and perhaps even more so. The US has no real business interests in Iran. But Obama is unwilling to provide leadership on this issue, while he is willing to pay any price to avoid war.

What could go wrong?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:21 AM