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Monday, February 22, 2010

Shut off the gas pumps to Iran

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Reuel Marc Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz make the case for shutting off the gas pumps in Iran.
But let's be honest: Gasoline and insurance sanctions are just about all we've really got left in the quiver. The Guard Corps elite, who oversee Iran's nuclear program, are too well protected to be seriously hurt by financial and industrial sanctions. Targeted sanctions have increased the cost of Iranians doing business, but there is little evidence to suggest that sanctions so far have ever moderated the behavior of Iran's rulers.

The administration's "smart-sanctions" approach perpetuates a myth about Iran's politics that has crippled our analysis for years. Mr. Khamenei isn't an economic rationalist. He wasn't waiting for George W. Bush to depart to make peace with the United States. Men who talk about crushing the "enemies of God" won't give up their enriched uranium because transaction costs have increased. The acquisition of the bomb is now probably inseparable from the ruling elite's religious identity.

For sanctions to be a game changer, they have to be crushing. Mr. Khamenei's commitment to developing nukes is probably as strong as was Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's determination to destroy Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq War. The shock that stopped Khomeini—the realization that the conflict was threatening his regime's survival—ought to tell us what kind of shock we need now. Sanctions must complement the only thing that has so far rattled the regime: the pro-democracy Green Movement.

...

Gasoline and insurance sanctions tied to the cause of democracy might—just possibly—work. Foreign investment in Iran is rapidly declining. Even without refined-petroleum sanctions, foreign energy companies are reducing their investments and some are leaving the country. Munich Re and Allianz, two giant German insurance and reinsurance companies, recently announced they are terminating their Iranian business ties. Lloyd's of London, the world's leading specialist insurance market, promised to do the same once refined petroleum sanctions legislation is enacted.

The threat of gasoline sanctions also has persuaded BP, Reliance Industries and Glencore—all with deep, longstanding ties to Iran—to terminate direct gasoline sales. Siemens, the giant German industrial concern that was implicated in transferring telecommunication surveillance equipment to Tehran, has closed its headquarters in Iran.

More crucially, Mr. Ahmadinejad has badly mismanaged the economy, and the Iranian people know it. Refined-petroleum sanctions would rock an already shaky system. Iranians who are fed up with theocracy are certainly not going to embrace it if Mr. Obama declares gasoline sanctions the midwife of representative government. The regime has been blaming Washington for almost all of its failures since the revolution. Americans have become more popular in Iran precisely because the regime damns the U.S.
I don't believe that sanctions alone are going to stop Iran - even sanctions on gasoline and insurance - without at least a credible military threat behind them. Even with a military threat, I question whether at this point Iran can be stopped without military action. It can't hurt to try, so long as trying doesn't mean precluding a military option for some period of time. But the longer we dither on trying, the more likely it is that military action becomes (if it isn't already) the only solution.

Read the whole thing.

4 Comments:

At 8:14 PM, Blogger Chrysler 300M said...

we have to eliminate A´djad and Khamenei, not more not less

 
At 8:59 PM, Blogger nomatter said...

The gas pumps will not be shut off. No sanctions of value will follow all the other sanctions of no value.
Does anyone think hard sanctions with teeth might be employed against Iran?

"But the longer we dither on trying, the more likely it is that military action becomes (if it isn't already) the only solution."


No, the longer we dither period, the closer we come to another Shoah.

Israel can not hit Iran on it's own. Why does anyone think it is possible for Israel to go it alone? This is not an Osirak strike after all. The only way an Iran hit will be successful is with the aid of the US.

How many fighter jets would the IAF need to use to hit Iran nuke facilities? You are aware this would take a continued prolonged strike? Who will be minding the ship back at home? (when Israel is attacked)

All these articles are a waste of precious time. It makes one dream not protest. Israel can not do this alone.

We still have not stepped too far from the failure to bomb rail lines to Auschwitz.

 
At 10:51 PM, Blogger Chrysler 300M said...

eliminating Khamenei 2010 is like eliminating Hitler 1938, they will be finished in 0 time


am yisrael chai

 
At 11:06 PM, Blogger MUSHI said...

nomatter, it's not necessary as you have said...

in the case of israel attacking Iran, most likely Iran will attack Israel through the proxies (Hizballah and Hamas. I really doubt syria would retaliate) and directly to the american interests in the middle east.
once they attack the u.s stations in the middle east, USA will have no option than reataliate, and to finish the attack in the shortest time and with the least possible damage, the states will have to coordinate the attacks with Israel.

the real problem there is china, but as USA or Israel guarantee china their fuel supply, they will bark but not bite!

 

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