Israel Matzav

Iran is more vulnerable than ever to an Israeli strike

Tariq Alhomayed, the Editor-in-Chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, writes that given Iran's uncompromising stance on its nuclear program and the difficulties the West is encountering in trying to impose sanctions, the case for an Israeli military strike, possibly with cooperation from other countries, is stronger than ever.

For if the Iranians, as a Turkish official described them "invented chess [and] there are no short cuts with them" then the bad news for Iran in this case is that the possibility of Israel launching a military strike against it is now greater than at any time in the past. If the West – whether this is the US or Europe – merely announced that negotiations with Iran had reached a dead-end, this would be a good opportunity for Israel to persuade the West to launch a military strike against Iran, especially since the Iranians have succeeded in using up the time allotted to them by US President Barack Obama. This is a point of weakness that the Republicans are using to attacking Obama in Washington, and the best example of this are the attacks in the media made by Sarah Palin against the US President, particularly when she said "we need a commander-in-chief not a professor of law standing at the lectern."

Therefore we say that what seems like good news for Iran is in reality bad news, and this is because Iran has become more vulnerable to an Israeli military strike than at any time before. The Iranian regime is [also] facing an internal crisis, and Iran backing away from its nuclear rights will cause a violent confrontation with the [political] opposition that has now permeated the Iranian street. In this event, the question will be; why have the mullahs wasted time [on this nuclear program] and put the country's economy at risk? This is an issue that the Iranian opposition is exploiting with great intelligence.

In the event of a military confrontation taking place and the regime suffering genuine injuries – which is what is expected to happen – the mullahs will also be facing a critical situation from the growing domestic anger. Therefore the Iranian regime is facing a crisis – as noted above – because it is more concerned about maintaining its internal legitimacy. In the event of a military confrontation, internal collapse would mean the end of the mullahs' rule, whereas failure in the face of an external military strike would give the regime the opportunity to violently suppress the opposition in the name of defending the homeland in the face of "treason." However should this happen, the question remains; will the Iranian regime be able to survive?

I guess Almohayed doesn't believe the rebels will rally around the flag in the event of an Israeli attack either. Hmmm.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:18 PM