Israel Matzav

IAEA admits the obvious

The IAEA has issued its first report (pdf link) on Iran since the feckless Mohamed ElBaradei was as Director General replaced by Japan's Yukiya Amano. The report is blunt and makes it clear that ElBaradei was covering for Iran all along.

The report explicitly and unambiguously states and explains why Iran is in noncompliance of many of its obligations — something obvious perhaps to readers of this blog but that was lacking from previous reports. The report makes it clear that Iran is continuing to defy the international community.

Second, the report highlights a number of troubling developments. Iran has succeeded in increasing enrichment levels to 19.8 percent. It has transferred most of its stockpile of Low Enriched Uranium to the feed station of the fuel-enrichment plant in Natanz, where it intends to enrich uranium for its Tehran Research Reactor as fuel to produce medical isotopes. As David Albright, Jacqueline Shire, and Paul Brannan note in their report analysis [pdf link. CiJ], “Iran may plan eventually to convert most of its accumulated stock of LEU hexafluoride to 20 percent LEU, a quantity far in excess of the TRR’s needs (this quantity of LEU hexafluoride would yield just under 200 kg of 19.75 percent LEU).”

Given that Iran does not need to convert all its stockpile immediately, one must question the motives for such a move — especially since, in parallel, Iran is preparing the Esfahan site to start producing uranium metal, and the fuel-enrichment plant in Natanz has seen a considerable number of centrifuges sitting idly by, with some more being dismantled. And since Iran’s Fordow site (designed to host 3,000 centrifuges) may well suit a military program but ill suits a civil one, and since uranium metal is needed for weapons production and 200 kilograms of 19.75 percent LEU far exceed Iran’s medical needs, one must suspect the combining of these activities.

You can find a summary of some of Iran's early lies about its nuclear program here. ElBaradei was already in charge of the IAEA during that period.

Iran responded to the IAEA report on Friday (Hat Tip: Laura Rozen via Martin Kramer via Twitter).

Iran has just sent a letter to the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, repeating its request for fuel to run a research reactor in Tehran that produces nuclear isotopes for medical purposes, according to U.S. and European officials.

They are reading the letter as Iran's latest, and perhaps final, rejection of an offer the United States and five other countries made last October to provide the fuel by taking low-enriched uranium out of Iran and enriching it for use in the research reactor. (The plan would have significantly reduced Iran's low-enriched uranium stockpile available for enriching into weapons-grade fissile material).

News of Iran's letter comes a day after the IAEA said for the first time in a report that it suspects Iran may be trying to develop a nuclear warhead that could fit inside the nose-cone of a ballistic missile.

Even the Russians are now showing some concern, albeit not enough to back out of the S-300 deal.

Russia's foreign minister said Friday he is "very alarmed" over Iran's failure to prove its nuclear program is peaceful, suggesting Moscow may be closer to acceding to Western demands for new UN sanctions against Teheran.

Sergey Lavrov's deputy said later, however, that Russia was still against crippling sanctions — returning to the traditional rhetoric Moscow has used for its "partner" and business ally.

"We are very alarmed, and we cannot accept that Iran is refusing to cooperate" with the global nuclear oversight body, the International Atomic Energy Agency, Lavrov said on Ekho Moskvy radio.

...

"We find the term 'paralyzing sanctions' completely unacceptable. Sanctions should follow the aim of strengthening the regime of nuclear nonproliferation," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in comments carried by the Interfax news agency.

Ryabkov also said Russia would fulfill its contract with Iran to deliver S-300 missile systems — which Israel and its allies fear could bolster Teheran against attempts to stop its nuclear ambitions.

Roger Simon rips the Nobel Peace Prize committee for having given the prize to Mohamed ElBaradei and the IAEA in 2005.

Of course it’s Mr. ELBaradei, the Nobel Peace Prize Winner for 2005, who missed all this. Did he miss it accidentally? Mr. Amano has only had the job for a couple of months. ElBaradei had it for twelve years. As most kids would say, what’s up with that? What’s up with that, indeed. My guess is that ElBaradei either deliberately or semi-deliberately turned away from obvious Iranian nuclear weapons development for the better part of a decade or more. In other words, he deserved the Nobel Peace Prize about as much as A. Q. Khan. In fact, if Khan is the father of the Islamic bomb, ElBaradei is probably its uncle. At least Gore isn’t responsible for anybody getting nuked, just bankrupt. ElBaradei is in another category. Next time, might as well give the prize posthumously to Dr. Strangelove.

Unfortunately, at this point, that's crying over spilled milk.

The picture at the top is Ahmadinejad and ElBaradei nuzzling each other. I'm almost surprised ElBaradei returned to Egypt on Friday night and has not moved to Iran yet.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:40 AM