Israel Matzav

Hamas: Shalit talks have passed 'point of no return'

A Hamas spokesman told Israel Radio on Tuesday that talks aimed at freeing some 2,000 terrorists in exchange for kidnapped IDF corporal Gilad Shalit had 'passed the point of no return.' Later on Tuesday, the Supreme Court rejected two appeals that asked that the names of terrorists to be released be publicized before the deal is put to a vote by the government. These details come from the first article linked above:

Also Tuesday, Al-Hayat quoted Israeli sources as saying that 17 prisoners from east Jerusalem will be freed in a potential deal to release Schalit. Ten of the 17 will be deported out of Israel, according to the Arabic-language newspaper.

The report also quoted Hamas sources, who said that negotiations to secure a deal were stuck on fifty prisoners that Israel was refusing to release.

Among the fifty, according to Al-Hayat, were Hamas commander Jamal Abu al-Hija and Hassan Salama. Hija was a Hamas commander in Jenin, and is sentenced to nine life terms for his role in a number of terrorist attacks, including a 2000 car bombing near a Hadera mall that killed two people. Salama is responsible for the murder of dozens of Israelis in terrorist attacks, including two bus bombings in Jerusalem in 1996 in which 44 people were killed. He was given 38 life sentences in prison in 1998.

In other Arab media, Al-Quds Al-Arabi reported Tuesday that Hamas had decided to postpone signing a Palestinian unity agreement with Fatah until after a deal to free Schalit was signed.

Also on Tuesday, students at each of Israel's six pre-military academies who are scheduled to be drafted into the IDF next year sent letters to Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak urging them to reconsider the deal. The students wrote that while Israel is obligated to do what it can to bring Shalit home, it is not required to do so "at any price."

As to the court decision, the court said that the families would have 48 hours to protest individual terrorists' release before the deal is actually carried out (this is required by law). I don't recall any such protests ever succeeding (if someone else does, please note it in the comments, but I believe I am correct about this). In this case, with so many terrorists being released, 48 hours is not going to be a lot of time either.

The Supreme Court also rejected the demand that all of the deliberations regarding the deal be made public. Here is the 'rationale' for that part of the decision.

"In a confidential discussion, we were told there is no deal yet, that the deal being negotiated is complex and as yet not agreed upon. We were also told there are still gaps between the sides and the deal may eventually not take place. In this state of affairs, we understood why details cannot be published at the present time. The appellants' claim, that everything is known to all involved except the citizens of Israel, is not true," Beinisch wrote in the ruling.

"Regarding the claim that details of the deal are revealed by foreign publications, we were told that in this matter one must take into account the involvement of many interested parties in the process, and the foreign publications are used by those parties to manipulate the outcome," Beinisch continued.

"It can be said without a doubt that the actions to secure the release of Gilad Schalit raise difficulties and dilemmas of a human, moral, political and public nature, and these justify public debate; but we cannot overlook the difficult nature of a process where so many sensitive issues are still open-ended."

While Israel has released terrorists before, if this particular deal goes through as advertised, it will establish a number of precedents. First, it is by far the most lopsided deal Israel has ever made. Second, while Israel released terrorists with blood on their hands when it released Samir al-Kuntar and friends in the summer of 2008 in exchange for what turned out to be the bodies of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev HY"D (may God avenge their blood), those terrorists had carried out individual acts of terror and were not part of the terror organizations' leadership and infrastructure. Releasing the likes of Abdullah Barghouti (Hamas bomb maker) or Ibrahim Hamad (Hamas commander in the Jenin area) or Marwan Barghouti (commander of the Fatah Tanzim) is a whole new level of concessions.

While it can be expected that the Shamgar Commission will conveniently release its recommendations - which were also part of the High Court proceeding, but which were claimed not yet to exist - shortly after this 'deal' is consummated, and while it is expected that those recommendations will include not releasing terrorists with blood on their hands and not making lopsided exchanges, after an exchange like this, will anyone believe us? How long will it be to the next kidnapping? (Prediction: Three months or less and there will at least be an attempt to kidnap civilians). How long will it be until one or more of the released terrorists is involved in a terror attack? (Prediction: Six months or less). And yet, if you read the media here, it looks like everyone is willing to pay this price to have Shalit released.

A poll published in Monday's JPost says that 62% of the country would release convicted terrorists to obtain Shalit's freedom. What's wrong with the poll? Nothing, unless you read past the headline. If you read past the headline, you will see that the poll was done by students and not by professional pollsters. It polled only 200 people, a very small number for this kind of poll. It also asked the question in the most general terms: Would you release "convicted terrorists"? "Convicted terrorists" could include people whose sole offense was membership in a terror organization. That's not the same as asking people if they would release Ahmed Sa'adat (who planned the murder of Minister of Tourism Rechavam Ze'evi HY"D) or Ahlam Tamimi (who orchestrated the Sbarro massacre) in exchange for Shalit. But you'd have to do a lot of reading between the lines and have a fair amount of background knowledge to pick up on that.

Israelis aren't fools. There is lots of opposition to this release. But the Shalit family is well-connected politically and a lot of insiders are doing all they can to make sure that the public outrage doesn't emerge until after the deal is done.

What could go wrong?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:26 AM