Israel Matzav

Take the battle to Damascus and Beirut

Noah Pollak says Israel has to stop letting Hamas and Hezbullah (and Iran and Syria) dictate where its battles take place. The only way to stop proxy wars is to go after the principal.

The new strategy of creating proxy terrorist groups endowed with the potency and sophistication of armies, but with none of their restrictions or responsibilities, is racking up points. The goal is not to defeat Israel on the battlefield, but to wage a war of attrition that erodes its national confidence, challenges its moral clarity, and transforms it into a pariah among democratic peoples.

Yet this model of warfare depends for its success on one important factor: Israel's willingness to fight on the battlefields that Iran and Syria have assigned to it. Many argue that Israel has established deterrence with Hamas and Hizbullah. Perhaps, but it is only temporary - the Francop's missiles, grenades, and mortar rounds are testament to that.

More importantly, Israel is only deterring the junior members of the terrorist hierarchy, and they can renew their ranks and capabilities much more easily than can a regime. It is hard to imagine that in the coming years there will not be another conflict with Hizbullah that will lead to a predictable cycle of events: civilian deaths in Lebanon; condemnation of Israel; farcical UN and NGO investigations; and a deepening Israeli feeling of isolation that will make peace harder to achieve.

But the tables can be turned by shifting the target of retaliation onto the state sponsors of Hamas and Hizbollah. The military strategist Carl Von Clausewitz argued that "a major act of strategic judgment" is to distinguish the "centers of gravity in the enemy's forces" - and attack there, where it will make the most difference.

By fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel is attacking its enemy's periphery, not its center of gravity. Its victories will thus always be ephemeral.

Three years ago, Israel had the opportunity to go after one of Hezbullah's patrons: The Bush administration expected Israel to attack Syria during the Second Lebanon War. Unfortunately, the Olmert-Peretz-Livni government didn't have the guts to do it. With Obama in power, if Israel ever goes after Syria or Iran in response to a Hezbullah or Hamas attack, Obama will lead the charge to the UN. On the other hand, if Israel goes after Iran's nuclear capability, there may not be much Obama can do about it.

Heh.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:07 PM