Israel Matzav

Why a third 'intifada' is unlikely - for now

Haaretz reports that a third 'intifiada' (violent uprising by the 'Palestinians') is currently unlikely.

"There is a state of disengagement between the people and its political leadership so people are not ready to sacrifice as they did before," said Zakaria al-Qaq of al-Quds University.

"At the same time there is a build-up of anger that is waiting for the spark. No one can predict when the spark will come. But it could take years yet."

Factors mentioned include disillusion that 4,000 Palestinians deaths in the years of uprising since 2000 have brought few benefits, while Israel has walled off the West Bank and closed the Israeli job market to Palestinians.

The schism that has seen Islamist Hamas seize the Gaza Strip and being suppressed in the West Bank by new, Western-trained security forces loyal to Abbas is also likely to limit organised violence from the West Bank against Israel.

...

Analyst Hani Masri said sporadic and largely spontaneous demonstrations that turn into clashes like those this past week in Jerusalem may become more common.

But he said: "The wariness among the people about popular resistance is greater than before, following the huge losses they suffered in the Second Intifada.

"Israel has used the Second Intifada as an excuse to build the wall and to avoid committing to signed agreements. Palestinians should not give them this excuse again."

Samir Awad, a political science professor at Birzeit University, said: "It would be a mistake to expect a popular wave of protest. I cannot see it happening.

"But if Israeli provocations in Jerusalem continue, we may expect clashes arising from religious and patriotic emotion."

I would add a few more reasons why a third 'intifada' is currently unlikely. First, there is no one to lead and organize it. The first 'intifada' was spontaneous but accomplished nothing; the second was led by Yasser Arafat, although that was not proven until much later. Now, there is no leadership and as noted above there is no spontaneity. A good reason to keep Marwan Barghouti under lock and key.

Second, Binyamin Netanyahu is likely to be at least as brutal as Ariel Sharon was in putting down an 'intifada.' Simply put, if the 'Palestinians' choose to go to war again, they will pay a price. Ehud Barak made the mistake of responding with kid gloves - it was two months from the first terror outrage to the first targeted assassination, and it was only Ariel Sharon - three years after the fact - who sent the IDF into the 'Palestinian' cities to put the 'intifada' down. You can bet that Netanyahu - after seeing their experiences - would send the IDF in a lot more quickly.

Third, the 'Palestinians' now recognize that they have paid a heavy price for what they did between 2000 and 2004. That price was sealed by what happened in Gaza after 2005. Israelis don't trust them any more and most Israeli Jews are unwilling to make concessions to them. That's why the Netanyahu government was elected. It will take years - or a major transformation - before most Israeli Jews would consider the kinds of concessions offered by Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert.

Fourth, the 'Palestinians' recognize that they now have a good life in Judea and Samaria. Why would they want to spoil it? Most of them don't want a 'state' anyway. They understand that right now their choices are to live decently under Israeli rule, or to go back to a military occupation where they can't leave their villages. Which would you choose?

Finally, let's be realistic: The 'western trained security forces loyal to Abbas' will be totally useless at best if there is another 'intifada.' Those troops - also known as the Dayton force - are more likely to join an 'intifada' than to fight one.

So no, as long as Israel doesn't do anything stupid like create a 'Palestinian state,' there won't be an 'intifada' for now.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 3:11 PM