Israel Matzav

Turkey delivers a strategic blow

Ron Ben Yishai explains why despite the efforts of Israel's foreign and defense ministries to downplay it, Turkey's cancellation of Israel's participation in a military exercise last week is a serious strategic blow to Israel.

However, the cancellation of Israel’s participation in the aerial drill is a truly negative shift, even though we are dealing with a demonstrative propaganda move meant to appease domestic public opinion; the decision does not undermine Israel’s security directly or immediately.

However, Turkey (which is interested in gaining acceptance into the European Union) would not have dared adopt such move in defiance of Washington and its European allies had its government not reached the conclusion that the benefit it can expect among regional states by shunning Israel is greater than the potential damage.

In order not to sabotage whatever is still left of the relationship, officials in Jerusalem prefer to maintain a low profile and refrain from a significant response. However, we must recognize the fact that Ankara, for the time being at least, is no longer a dependable strategic and security partner for Israel. This fact already constitutes a substantial blow to our national security because it erodes our deterrent power vis-à-vis Iran and Syria. Anyone who looks at the regional map can easily understand this.

I'm sure the Iranians are jumping for joy.

But the role of the lack of European reaction to this incident (other than Italy following the United States and canceling its participation) needs to be underscored. The Europeans have left Israel high and dry. And the Americans may yet do the same. Listening to Barack Obama at the United Nations in the Goldstone Report's aftermath, the Turks were smart enough to see that coming. The events are out of Israel's control.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:58 PM