Israel Matzav

What we know about Iran's nuclear capability

The last report published by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on August 28 can be summarized in two phrases: that Iran’s uranium enrichment program is advancing much faster than expected, and the country is still uncooperative with IAEA inspectors so that they can sort out the many and grave doubts about what Iran is doing and plotting.

In fact and against what the U.N. Security Council demands – the complete stop of Iran’s uranium enrichment activities – Iran’s centrifuges have continued spinning gas to make low-enriched uranium (LEU), and Tehran has also continued installing new centrifuges at the nuclear plant in Natanz.

Up to now, Iran has almost 5,000 centrifuges operating at full capacity and other 4,000 more on the verge of going from the experimental phase into full industrial production.

Combining the data advanced by Iranian authorities and the estimates made by the IAEA, experts at the University of Wisconsin who have long monitored the Iranian nuclear program think that Iran appears to be producing about 2.77 kg of LEU a day. At this very moment when you are reading this article, Iran has already stockpiled 1,602.31 kg of this nuclear material.

If in order to produce military uranium for a bomb, 800 kg of LEU is the amount suitable for the venture, then the answer is obvious: Iran might already have enough material to make its two first nuclear bombs whenever it sees fit. Converting LEU into military uranium would only take Tehran approximately 3 months.

What we know that we don’t know is when Iran’s leaders will take the decision to abandon the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) – although Iran is a signatory of this treaty, it has been found in non-compliance with its NPT obligations – or if it will continue with its clandestine plans until it has its first atomic device ready. In other words, we do not know when or how; yet we do know it will undoubtedly happen.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:14 AM