Obama will learn about Israel's strike on Iran from CNN
Micah Zenko looks back at four prior Israeli military actions - the 1956 attack on the Suez Canal, the 1967 Six Day War, the 1981 attack on Iraq's nuclear reactor and the 2007 attack on Syria's nuclear reactor - and concludes that when and if Israel decides to attack Iran, President Obama will learn about it on CNN. The Israelis won't ask permission. But if diplomacy fails, the world should be prepared for an Israeli attack on Iran's suspected nuclear weapons facilities. As Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently acknowledged: "The window between a strike on Iran and their getting nuclear weapons is a pretty narrow window."I agree completely.
If Israel attempts such a high-risk and destabilizing strike against Iran, President Obama will probably learn of the operation from CNN rather than the CIA. History shows that although Washington seeks influence over Israel's military operations, Israel would rather explain later than ask for approval in advance of launching preventive or preemptive attacks. Those hoping that the Obama administration will be able to pressure Israel to stand down from attacking Iran as diplomatic efforts drag on are mistaken.
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These episodes demonstrate that if Israel decides that Iranian nuclear weapons are an existential threat, it will be deaf to entreaties from U.S. officials to refrain from using military force. Soon after the operation, Washington will express concern to Tel Aviv publicly and privately. The long-standing U.S.-Israeli relationship will remain as strong as ever with continued close diplomatic, economic, intelligence and military cooperation.
Should Tehran prove unwilling to meet the September deadline and bargain away its growing and latent nuclear weapon capability, we can expect an Israeli attack that does not require U.S. permission, or even a warning.
Does the Obama administration recognize this? I doubt it.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:23 PM
6 Comments:
The long-standing U.S.-Israeli relationship will remain as strong as ever with continued close diplomatic, economic, intelligence and military cooperation.
I hope this is true, but with President Obama's own beliefs concerning Israel and people like Susan Rice advising him, it's a fair question to ask if the US will somehow punish Israel for undertaking a military strike against Iran without knowledge or consent.
"The long-standing U.S.-Israeli relationship will remain as strong as ever with continued close diplomatic, economic, intelligence and military cooperation."
This part, I believe, is wishful thinking. It will be far worse than the slap on the wrist Israel received from Reagan in 1981. Iran's response will be quite different from Iraq and Syria, militarily and economically. After oil prices spike and US troops are attacked, Israel - and Jews - will be blamed. Europe will be in full dudgeon, and Obama will blame Israel for going behind his back and damaging US interests. The US will likely hold up vital military shipments, support Israel's condemnation in the UN SC, and probably much worse.
Israel is withholding action not only because this will be a far more difficult operation than those in the past. It recognizes too that if Israel does act it will do so without an understanding friend in the White House.
remember that z band radar the us placed in israel? would obama warnd iran?
The US will detect military actions as they happen and will decide---based on whether it favors the Sunnis (such as Saudis) or Shiites (such as Iranians)---whether to tip off Iran or not.
If Israel launches a low altitude EMP warhead, it can't be taken out. Even the US couldn't stop it.
i think it's the right moment for israel to do the right decision.
if israel attack the nuclear power plants in iran, at the same time, should be attacking hizbollah, and hamas in gaza.
but not an attack like the olmert administration...
i mean a full attack where you send your enemies to stone age.
this must be the line. it will be a message to the whole world.
"STOP FUCKING US".
but there is a problem with what i have said: there must be someone in charge that must have the guts to do it, and take full responsability for that (i think there is no one).
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