Obama and Mitchell to appeal directly to Israelis
According to a report in Monday's New York Times, the Obama administration plans to bypass the Israeli political leadership and appeal directly to Israelis through media appearances on Israeli television and the like (Hat Tip: Memeorandum). No, of course the Times didn't put it that way, but that's what the substance of the report means. In coming weeks, senior administration officials said, the White House will begin a public-relations campaign in Israel and Arab countries to better explain Mr. Obama’s plans for a comprehensive peace agreement involving Israel, the Palestinians and the Arab world.It sounds like the Obama administration is taking to heart the claim advanced by Israel's left and their fellow travelers that the President has to speak directly to Israelis.
The campaign, which will include interviews with Mr. Obama on Israeli and Arab television, amounts to a reframing of a policy that people inside and outside the administration say has become overly defined by the American pressure on Israel to halt settlement construction on the West Bank.
“We’re at a crucial moment now,” said Martin S. Indyk, a former ambassador to Israel and peace negotiator in the Clinton administration. “There are only so many visits George Mitchell can make.”
In Israel, public opinion toward Mr. Obama, which was skeptical to start with, has soured because of the tension over settlements. In the Arab world, there is little evidence of a change of heart toward Israel.
...
Assuming that Mr. Mitchell can break the deadlock over settlements issue in the next few weeks, Mr. Miller said, the Obama administration will most likely aim for a peace conference in the fall.
To get even that far, however, the United States may have to do more aggressive public diplomacy, according to analysts. Mr. Obama, commentators in Israel noted, delivered his major speech on the Middle East in Cairo. He has not yet visited Israel as president, and in the view of some, has not laid out his broad strategy to the Israeli people in a persuasive manner.
“Even if it was wise to focus on settlements, what the administration failed to do was provide a context,” said Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former ambassador to Israel who has advised Mr. Obama on the Middle East.
I don't believe that Obama's and Mitchell's task is quite as simple as explaining a context to Israelis. Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech ten days after Obama's took the ball out of Obama's hands.
Netanyahu set out a vision that spoke to most Jewish Israelis (we may disagree about some of the nuances - most notably the term "demilitarized 'Palestinian' state" rather than "autonomy" - but there are not vast differences in the day-to-day substance) and that has many elements that are anathema to 'Palestinians.' For example, the statements Netanyahu made about any 'Palestinian' entity being demilitarized, about Israel not going back to the 1949 armistice lines (without specifically defining what that meant), not agreeing to divide Jerusalem, and not allowing any 'Palestinian right of return' to Israel, are all points that resonate with Israelis and about which Israelis are highly unlikely to be moved, regardless of what Obama says. And yes, that even includes the sane part of Israel's Left.
Moreover, the call for Obama to 'talk directly to Israelis' overlooks the biggest problem he has with us: Almost no one here trusts him. When the Times says that Israelis were 'skeptical to start with' that perhaps refers to the 31% of Jewish Israelis who believed that Obama's was pro-Israel before the speech in Cairo. And when it refers to Israelis having 'soured' on Obama, that likely refers to the 6% of Jewish Israelis who believed that Obama was pro-Israel after his speech in Cairo. By comparison, 88% of Jewish Israelis believed George W. Bush was pro-Israel when he left office despite his having pressured us with the 'Annapolis process' during his last year in office. If Obama believes he can overcome a 6% approval rating with a couple of well-done speeches, he's dreaming. Just ask Ehud Olmert (the party overcame its 2007 numbers, but Olmert himself never did).
Perhaps this quote from the character named Mary Alice from Desperate Housewives (a show I have never seen) sums it up best:
Trust is a fragile thing. Once earned, it affords us tremendous freedom. But once trust is lost, it can be impossible to recover.If Israelis ever trusted Obama they certainly don't anymore. And he has a long mountain to climb to make Israelis trust him. I don't see it happening. Feeding us cupcakes isn't going to change anything.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:33 AM
5 Comments:
He may even jeopardize that thin 6% approval rating. He's a real "0" in every sense.
I think that he will be reduced to threatening us if we don't "deliver" Netanyahu on a platter. Samantha the Witch Power waits in the wings.
It's going to be a fun ride.
I doubt Obama is going to say anything that will change Israeli minds. Its not the nuance of his policy that Israel finds offensive; its the substance of that policy. He can try to sugar coat it but Israelis will see right through. Sh*t covered by chocolate is still sh*t. And without a change in America's policy, Obumbler won't win the vast majority of Israeli Jews over.
At the speed Obama's messing things up, he'll ruin America before he gets to ruin Israel.
Uh-huh. As I posted a couple of days ago, Phase II coming -- the new, improved Obama. The artificial sweetener designed to lift the spirits and put a smile on the face of every Jew willing to close his eyes and open wide.
Arab countries’ opening commercial offices in Tel Aviv to their leaders’ granting interviews to Israeli journalists [like maybe Akiva Eldar, FD]. Another step would be getting Arab nations to allow Israel’s state carrier, El Al, to fly over Arab countries to cut flight times to Asia.
This is Arab bargaining at its finest. Begin by slamming the door shut in the face of the suitor; when pressed, follow with the most trivial and retractable concessions; when deal falls through, blame the other side.
Note that while this kabuki dance plays out, no one on the Israeli side has yet to remind Obama or the NYT that Israel has already surrendered something a bit less ephemeral: land (Gaza) and rights (to J&S).
Israeli bargaining at its most supine.
Israel should not assume that its secure information will not reach its enemies via US channels. This could complicate planning about Iran, for example.
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