Israel Matzav

'Iran could, but probably won't build a bomb within a year'

What makes them so confident?

The US and Israel both believe that 'Iran could, but probably won't build a bomb within a year' according to an 'exclusive' report in Friday morning's Jerusalem Post.

According to these Israeli assessments, there is not much difference now between the US and Israel regarding a timeline for a "worst case scenario" on Iran's development of a bomb. At the same time, both Jerusalem and Washington currently believe that "worst case scenario is not likely to materialize."

The assessments come in the wake of comments made Sunday by US Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to the effect that Iran could be as little as a year away from completing a nuclear bomb, while Mossad head Meir Dagan recently surprised many by saying Iran won't have a nuclear weapon until 2014.

"I would be careful about all the declarations on this matter," said one senior government official who deals with the issue, adding that a decision by Teheran to go full throttle toward the building of a bomb was dependent on numerous different decisions the government would have to make, and which it had simply not yet made.

In the meantime, the official said, the Iranians have decided to continue to enrich as much low grade uranium as they can, and to also continue development in the field of ballistic missiles at a level that would not make their situation with the international community much worse than it already is.

Some American and Israeli experts have long argued that, rather than pushing for a bomb the moment they can, the Iranians may want to gain the potential capacity, over a longer period, to build an entire nuclear arsenal - and then stay weeks or months away from final bomb-making but ready to make the ultimate push should they so choose.

And the last one out of here when that happens should remember to turn off the lights, eh?

Sorry, but I don't find the fact that Iran may be capable of building a nuclear weapon but not actually build it until the timing suits them at all reassuring.

Meanwhile, French President Sarkozy warned that a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear capacity would be a 'catastrophe.'

Hey - we don't want to go it alone either, but I don't see anyone else stepping up to the plate.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:00 AM