Israel Matzav

Obama ensures there will be no negotiations with the 'Palestinians'

Herb Keinon has a piece of spot-on analysis in Thursday's JPost that concludes that the Obama administration's focus on 'settlement' construction has ensured that no negotiations between Israel and the 'Palestinians' will take place in the foreseeable future.

Whether this was Obama's intention or not, his hard line on the settlements has effectively made Israeli-Palestinian negotiations dependent on a complete settlement freeze, something the Netanyahu government - because of its political makeup and Netanyahu's desire for political longevity - is simply not going to do.

So here is the status report so far on the Obama administration's settlement policy: The US has strongly called for a complete settlement freeze, Netanyahu has made clear that he will not comply and the Palestinians say that they will not begin negotiating until one is in place.

The bottom line: there will be no negotiations.

Ironically, this state of no-negotiations is good and comfortable for PA President Mahmoud Abbas. He is not interested in negotiating with Netanyahu, figuring - probably rightly so - that he is not going to get more from the Likud prime minister than he got from former prime minister Ehud Olmert, who was willing to cede more than 93 percent of the West Bank, make up for the rest with a land swap, and relinquish Israel's claim over the holy basin in Jerusalem.

Abbas turned down Olmert's offer, telling The Washington Post that the gaps were too wide. He is he probably reasoning that those gaps aren't going to narrow under Netanyahu, so why negotiate?

And Obama has now given him an excuse not to.

This state of no-negotiations might serve Netanyahu's purpose as well, at least if one believes his critics, who argue that the prime minister really doesn't think it is possible to reach an agreement with the Palestinians, and that all he is doing now is posturing.

...

If Obama thinks that by pressing this issue real hard, the Israeli public will revolt against Netanyahu, or that Netanyahu will go gently into the good political night, then he is misreading both the public and Netanyahu. Netanyahu, currently flirting with Kadima's Shaul Mofaz, will not be felled so easily.

Heh. Read the whole thing.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:33 PM