If the demography is no longer 'inevitable,' do we still 'need' a 'Palestinian state'
Listen up those of you who think a 'Palestinian state' is a 'vital interest' of the State of Israel because otherwise we will have to make a choice between being a Jewish or a democratic state: The Jewish and Arab birth rates are converging.However, after the first stage of demographic transition - a falling death rate, a persistently high birthrate and thus rapid population growth - invariably comes a second stage, in which birthrates fall. This is now happening within Israeli Arab society, and has been for some time. The average Israeli Arab woman is now having fewer than half the children she had in the 1960s, while the Jewish birthrate has recently stabilized and even risen. This is seen in the number of children actually born each year. In 2001, there were around 95,000 Jewish births in Israel and 41,000 Arab births. Just seven years later, in 2008, Jewish births had risen to over 117,000, but Arab births had declined to less than 40,000. In a period that constitutes barely a quarter of a generation, Arab births had fallen from around 30 percent of the total to around 25 percent. This has been a steady trend and, should it continue, it will only be a very short time before Jewish and Arab births each year are broadly proportionate to the overall balance of Jews and Arabs in the population as whole - that is, 4:1, or 80 percent and 20 percent, respectively.Heh.
...
None of the above takes account of the Arab population beyond the Green Line. Here the data are less reliable, but two things seem clear: Birthrates remain high, but they are falling fast. The number of births in the West Bank in 2003 suggested that Palestinian women there were having on average five children. Last year, that number was not much higher than three children, an astonishing transformation for so short a period of time.
...
For a favorable outcome, it would be prudent to concentrate on defusing not the "demographic time bomb," but the time bomb of ill-informed and misleading demographic scare-mongering.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:56 PM
4 Comments:
I favor a "Palestinian" state...
As soon as the Palestinians become Ghandi like towards Jews & Israel, renounce violence, pay restitution for all property damage, arrest, imprison and execute all war criminals that are guilty of crimes against humanity then they can have a state...
But we MUST play the game like the world demands us too...
Agree to talk, talk, talk and while we talk, keep killing the bad guys...
The truth? the fake nationalistic people called "palestinians" are a tool used by the arabs, now they are being used by the Islamic nitwits...
No difference really...
Just change the ball cap....
So in public, advocate a 2 state solution, talk talk talk...
and target, aim and fire....
The land for peace school was based on the argument that a new partition would help to preserve a Jewish majority in Israel from being overtaken by sheer Arab numbers. The latest study shows the "demographic time bomb" is in fact a dud. Israel could annex Judea, Samaria and Gaza and remain one third Arab for the next century. Of course the Arab numbers would be even less of a consequence if the Israeli government were to subsidize massive Arab emigration from the country. The real point is Israel does not need to amputate its heartland in order to counter a threat that in fact does not exist and will never exist.
We've pointed out all the reasons why there will never be a Palestinian state. The permanent status of a Jewish majority in all of Eretz Israel means there is no urgent reason to even create one. Just the opposite.
In short, in the Israel-Palestinian conflict, demography is far from destiny and does not even point to the most obvious solution favored by the rest of the world as the answer to securing Israel's future as a Jewish State.
The patient is healthy and introducing an unnecessary treatment will not make him stronger. The two state solution is that treatment for Israel to avoid at all costs. All we can do is pray Israeli policymakers get the message that a Palestinian state is bad for Israel, bad for the Middle East and bad for the world.
Norman, I find it interesting that no one in the GOI seems willing to question the conventional wisdom on demographics based on some of the contrary evidence, i.e., an overstatement of the number of Arabs in the territories. If Israel could annex J&S and remain 60-65% Jewish, why is this not examined and discussed openly? Or if the issue is too controversial (but the alternative data accurate), why do successive Israeli governments act as though there is no debate on the data? There's something fishy here.
My concern about annexation is that it will not end the conflict because, 1) the Arabs and international community will not accept it, and 2) it will not settle the disposition of the millions of Palestinian "refugees" currently living in the Arab countries. They will not be admitted into Eretz Israel and the Arabs will not assimilate them.
So, Israel is back to square one with a much larger Arab population within her borders and "the right of return" remaining as a weapon with which to defeat Israel politically.
Finance Doc,
You're relatively new on this blog (I think). Why doesn't the government of Israel buck the conventional theories and annex Judea and Samaria. This should answer your question.
Post a Comment
<< Home