Likud, Kadima and Labor conducting 'secret' negotiations
Remember earlier in the week when I raised the possibility that Likud and Kadima would ask Ehud Barak to stay on as defense minister and bring Labor into the coalition - leaving Avigdor Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu outside? Guess what.... Meanwhile, Maariv reported on Friday that secret talks between Netanyahu, Livni and Barak on forming a national-unity government without Lieberman were being held.If Kadima does not find its way into the government, it may disintegrate. Army Radio reported on Friday morning that Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz and Housing and Construction Minister Zev Boim are headed back to the Likud if Kadima is not in the government. If they return to the Likud, other Mofaz proteges in Kadima are likely to follow.
The Post reported Thursday that, despite public statements to the contrary by Kadima leaders, a consensus was developing in Likud and Kadima that they would be able to form a government together under Netanyahu's leadership on the basis of equality between the two parties.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 3:09 PM
9 Comments:
If Shaul Mofaz and his proteges were to abandon Kadima, Likud becomes the largest Knesset faction. So its in Livni and Barak's interests to stay in the government or watch their parties disintegrate.
Who says life in Israel isn't colorful?
Heh
Shabbat Shalom!
To what extent if this happens can Bibi be constrained by his own party. We saw Sharon ignore the party and bolt for Kadima.
Will the presence of Yaalon, Begin and Maighut Yehudit faction in Likud serve to keep Bibi honest as much as would say, the presnce of Ichud Leumi in the government, or will Bibi take his ball and go home if the Obama administration tries to push Israel toward the "peace camp" path?
I think the presence of Yaalon and Begin will create more pressure on Bibi than Ichud Leumi. Those are his two stars - widely respected individuals, who can give Bibi a PR nightmare if they threaten to quit.
Ichud Leumi is seen by most to the left of it as "crazy settlers," but since Bibi's coalition will be small - anyone has a good amount of influence.
In any case, Bibi has been pushing Manhigut Yehudit away hard. Even went to court over Feiglin's place on the list. I think he's underestimating their power - which will be to his great detriment if they decide to bolt the Likud (with their supporters) and merge with the smaller parties.
Reading this thread, these comments and this JPost column by Caroline Glick has only reinforced my perception that little Israel, with such a small population sure has some incredibly complicated politics. Wow-makes my head spin trying to understand the election results!
Manhigut is not planning on bolting the Likud.
And this, too, will be to the detriment of Bibi & Co., who, like Sharon, have steared the Likud way off course. Eventually, they must be shown the door, if they don't do their own rendition of the Kadima Split. The sooner the better.
Begin might bolt but I doubt it. Ya'alon will stay the course with Bibi no matter what. Neither of them enhance the Likud in any way.
Ichud Leumi is as impotent as its predecesors.
ShyGuy, Israel's future leadership is national religious but it is going to take herculean efforts to keep Israel from being given away in the meantime.
For now, the Palestinians' belligerence is all that stands in the way of that happening.
ShyGuy, Israel's future leadership is national religious
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Which is why I'm an active member of Manhigut Yehudit.
LB,
I think it will be very difficult within the party for Bibi to resist Begin and Yaalon. But I don't believe that will prevent Bibi from going to Kadima. Begin has quit governments before, and he is likely to quit this one too. Yaalon is a newcomer to politics and its hard to say what he will do. But he won't be very happy if Mofaz ends up defense minister.
Shy Guy,
I'm also a member of the Likud through Manhigut, and and I was involved in some of the initial meetings about it (back in the early and mid '90's!) before Feiglin's name ever came up. When I joined in the end, I was signed up by someone who occasionally comments on this blog, who didn't mention that joining the Likud had anything to do with Feiglin or Manhigut. I stayed in anyway.
I don't believe Manhigut will ever take over the Likud. I wish it would, but I'm afraid that's a pipe dream. More likely electoral reform will force all the religious parties to band together (a move that surveys say would have won them 30 seats in this Knesset!) and that Manhigut will join that move.
Carl - I'm in favor of Israel adopting the German electoral system. Basically, the country would elect half the Knesset through a pure PR as it does now and elect the other half through a single constituency list. In effect, every Israeli voter would get two votes - one for the party and one for an individual MK. To provide for more stable governments, the PR threshold would be raised from 2% to 5% and parties would have to also win at least 2% of the single constituency seats to be represented in the Knesset. The Knesset's term would be increased from four years to five to make government more responsible.
Israel would elect a President with executive powers for a five year term with powers similar to that vested in the US President. He would choose his own Cabinet, who would have to be confirmed by the Knesset but who cannot sit in it.
In other words, Israel would take the best of the German and American political systems and adapt them to its own unique circumstances. Israel would be getting both responsible and accountable government. It has neither today.
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