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Thursday, October 30, 2008

76% of US citizens in Israel voted for McCain

I keep telling you all that Republican candidate John Sidney McCain would win a much higher percentage of the votes of American citizens who live in Israel than any of the polls were showing. I was right.
The exit polls show a very strong preference for John McCain over Barack Obama. The polls, carried out and analyzed by Keevoon, a Jerusalem-based research, strategy and communications firm, indicate that 76% of the polled voters in Israel said they voted for Republican candidate John McCain; 24% said they cast their ballot in favor the Democrat, Barack Obama. The information is based on data collected from 817 absentee voters at several voting events in Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv as well as an online survey.
And I was right about the reasons too.

A few interesting figures about the voters:

  • A clear correlation was noted between religious observance and voting pattern.
  • Turnout among young voters ages 18 to 34 was high (37%)
  • 31% were first-time voters
  • 25% have lived in Israel for more than 15 years, 33% less than one year
  • 52% are also Israeli citizens
  • Half are either independent or not registered with either party
...

46% of Democrats crossed party lines to vote for McCain.
Only 2% of Republicans voted for Obama. And
57% listed foreign policy (including Israel) as the most important factor in their consideration; 14% listed the economy; 7%, Iran; and 6%, the war in Iraq/terrorism.
Nearly two-thirds were 'very concerned' with Iran; 93% agreed that a nuclear Iran would be a threat to the U.S.

Perhaps most interesting is that McCain is viewed as more capable of handling challenges, even among Obama voters.
Someone please get these figures to all those misguided American Jews who think Barack Hussein Obama is best for Israel.

Bob Wexler will have no comments on this poll.

Heh.

UPDATE 4:41 PM (Boston time)

More on this story here (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).

UPDATE 7:00 PM (Boston time)

JPost is now reporting that this sample 'oversampled the Orthodox.'
But Mitchell Barak, of Keevoon Research, Strategy and Communications, immediately acknowledged to The Jerusalem Post that the 76-24 percent McCain-Obama poll had "over sampled" voters from the Orthodox community to a certain extent.

Two of the events at which voters were questioned were conducted in Orthodox institutions in Jerusalem. The third was held in a Tel Aviv brewery. "It could have been better if there were other events around the country," Barak said.

The survey was promptly reported by the Associated Press, which quoted Barak saying it represented "a good indicator on how people are voting this year."

The findings also rapidly appeared on the International Herald Tribune's Web site and some Israeli news sites.

A total of 817 absentee ballot voters answered the 22-question survey at three voting events, Barak said: At the Dancing Camel Brewery in Tel Aviv on Sunday, at the YU Seminary in Jerusalem on Monday and in the capital's OU Center a day later. Sixty percent of the respondents described themselves as Orthodox.

The poll also conducted an on-line survey among 1700 voters assisted by the "Vote from Israel" organization.

An estimated 45,000 Americans in Israel requested absentee ballots.
But the Post is wrong. 60% Orthodox is actually a fairly accurate measure of the percentage of American immigrants to Israel who are Orthodox.
The largest wave of American immigration to Israel was in the heady years following the Six-Day War in 1967. It is estimated that some two-thirds of the 30,000 immigrants from America who arrived between 1967 and 1973 remained in Israel. Although this group was both diverse with regard to its background and professed a wide variety of explanations for their decision to immigrate to Israel, about half described themselves as "religious."5 Indeed, this group was far more likely to acknowledge religious motivations in their decision to move to Israel than those ABIs who had preceded them.

Over the last quarter century since the Yom Kippur War, some 60,000 American Jews have settled in Israel. Sixty percent of this group is estimated to be Orthodox. The Orthodox not only comprise a clear majority of the American immigrants who arrived during this period, but are estimated to have a "return rate" of roughly 20 percent - only half that of their non-Orthodox counterparts.6
So a 60% Orthodox survey is likely the correct distribution of American immigrants to Israel. And Orthodox Jews are much more likely to vote for McCain than their non-Orthodox brethren. Hmmm.

12 Comments:

At 7:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Someone please get these figures to all those misguided American Jews who think Barack Hussein Obama is best for Israel.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:29 PM

=================================

Did you get my email pointing to this video, which every friend of Israel thinking of voting for Obama should watch?

 
At 7:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How does it feel to be one of the oversampled?

 
At 6:11 AM, Blogger ISRAEL said...

umm...i don't think you fully grasp the extent of the problems gripping this country - eight yrs. of the failed bush/mccain policies is enough, period! the united states of america is the most powerful nation in the world thus it falls upon us to police, safeguard, and keep in check countries that stray from civilized behavior - we cannot do this if we as a country are divided nor can we do it if we are broke - the united states currently controls the world economy, if we go down the world goes down. please try to put this in perspective, we are all still very young, we may have our differences, our arguments, our wars...this is only the beginning - we have a long way to go (god-willing).

 
At 7:45 AM, Blogger Jay said...

You're an idiot Israel. You're not a Jew. Probably a Jew hater. Go Fuck yourself.

 
At 7:46 AM, Blogger Jay said...

BTW I bet he the liberal kid trolling in Gateway Pundit.

 
At 8:46 AM, Blogger Yaela Katz said...

I don't understand all this religious objection to Obama - I'd think his name would be the reason they love him ...

The first time a woman presided over Israel, Barak was our greatest defender :)

 
At 8:49 AM, Blogger Rachel said...

McCain has always voted in line with Bush. But in the last 8 years, Bush policies have destroyed the economy, killed US soldiers and Iraqi citizens, allowed destruction in major US cities after Hurricane Katrina, and permitted torture under procedures later disallowed by our own Supreme Court. It is unfortunate that some voters in Israel do not feel the pain of this, and still support McCain under the mistaken believe that it is better for "them" and Israel. Most of the Jews I know in the US are voting for Obama.

 
At 8:57 AM, Blogger Rachel said...

Also, most of the Jewish and pro-Israel organizations in the US are very supportive of Obama. McCain is making up all sorts of political smears. How someone manages a campaign usually portends how someone will perform in office. Contrary to McCain/Palin insinuations, Obama is NOT Muslim, NOT friendly with terrorists, NOT any of these things. Do you really want someone who would spread these lies (and many others) to be leader of a powerful ally of Israel? If so, you would not be a supporter of Israel OR the US.

 
At 12:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rachel, wrong on all counts. But keep your head in the sand and pretend everything's alright because you want it to be. It has to be.

 
At 5:36 PM, Blogger Carl in Jerusalem said...

Hey Rachel,

Ever heard the name "Rashid Khalidi"? Is he a terrorist? Was Yasser Arafat a terrorist?

How about Bill Ayers? Ever heard that name? Was he a terrorist?

What makes someone a terrorist in your book? Ayers wanted to murder 25 million Americans to bring about his 'revolution' and he tried to murder a New York judge and his family thirty years ago. Does that make him a terrorist?

Or is it okay in your book because it was for a 'good cause'?

And yes, most US Jews are voting for Obama because they are in a catatonic stupor that won't allow them to pull a lever that says "Republican" on it and have been since the Great Depression.

 
At 4:00 AM, Blogger mnotaro said...

Rachel you are seriously misguided...Obama has serious and long term connections to Muslim radicals and terrorists--more than 1 even! You need to do some more research on your vote for the liberal left wing illuminati before tomorrow!

 
At 9:24 PM, Blogger Superb Jon said...

Why blame Aliya Jews collapsing USA by moving money to India? Carolignian Brzezinski spawned Zia al Haq, Khomeini, and bin Laden - breaks up superpowers via Aztlan and Kosovo as per Joel Garreau's Nine Nations. Brzezinski, Buckley and Buchanan winked anti-Semitic votes for Obama, delivered USA to Pope's feudal basket of Bamana Republics. Michael Pfleger and Joe Biden prove Obama is the Pope's boy. Talal got Pontifical medal as Fatima mandates Catholic-Muslim union against Jews (Francis Johnson, Great Sign, 1979, p. 126), Catholic Roger Taney wrote Dred Scott decision. John Wilkes Booth, Tammany Hall and Joe McCarthy were Catholics. Now Catholic majority Supreme Court. NYC top drop outs: Hispanic 32%, Black 25%, Italian 20%. NYC top illegals: Ecuadorean, Italian, Polish. Ate glis-glis but blamed plague on others, now lettuce coli. Their bigotry most encouraged terror yet they reap most security funds. Rabbi circumcizes lower, Pope upper brain. Tort explosion by glib casuistry. Bazelya 1992 case proves PLO-IRA-KLA links.

 

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