Witness accounts of Hezbollah's actions in Lebanon in the course of the incidents demonstrate not only that the Lebanon Army is refraining from trying to bar Hezbollah from operating throughout the country, but is in fact carrying out orders from the organization and granting it media cover.Lebanese media reports clearly indicate that Hezbollah is practicing censorship over broadcasts of the various networks. Nonetheless, it can be discerned at times that the picture as broadcast from Beirut is not telling the story in full. While camouflage-spotted Lebanon Army armored personnel carriers take center screen, Hezbollah men manning roadblocks can often be seen on the margins, checking the identity papers of passersby.Friday morning, Lebanese television stations were allowed to broadcast calming footage of armored personnel carriers standing outside the Al-Mustakbal Television building, owned by the Hariri family. The station's operations had been halted by Hezbollah.The actual story, of course, was much more serious. According to one version of the events, the Lebanon Army had ordered the workers there to leave their offices, solely to allow Hezbollah men to enter immediately thereafter to destroy equipment and other property. Two hours later, cameras were allowed into the area, but only to film the APC's standing guard over the building.
The close ties between the army and Hezbollah go beyond the recent battles. They also extend to south Lebanon. Under UN resolution 1701, the Lebanon Army was to deploy in the south and thus take up places occupied by Hezbollah, something that had raised hopes in Israel. Today, UNIFIL and the Lebanon Army respond to every incident in south Lebanon, but the presence of the army has no real significance there. At the moment of truth, the army will follow Hezbollah's orders, diplomatic sources believe.
The problem with 1701 from the get go has been that it is not self-executing with respect to disarming Hezbullah. As Barry Rubin noted back in August:But the central contradiction in the document is between OP11 and OP12. OP11 basically makes UNIFIL action dependent on the Lebanese government asking for help. In other words, only if the government asks UNIFIL to fight against terrorists in southern Lebanon or interdict arms smuggling can it act.It should be noted that the Lebanese armed forces are a polite fiction. Just as Hizbullah is part of the government coalition, it has also deeply infiltrated the army. Half or even more of the soldiers sympathize with Hizbullah and will not do anything to - as they think of it - "protect" Israel from attack. It is not a highly disciplined military with a reliable chain of command. If a Lebanese soldier fires at Hizbullah, the entire army could split into two warring factions, something the government and politicians will want to avoid at any cost.
But the central contradiction in the document is between OP11 and OP12. OP11 basically makes UNIFIL action dependent on the Lebanese government asking for help. In other words, only if the government asks UNIFIL to fight against terrorists in southern Lebanon or interdict arms smuggling can it act.It should be noted that the Lebanese armed forces are a polite fiction. Just as Hizbullah is part of the government coalition, it has also deeply infiltrated the army. Half or even more of the soldiers sympathize with Hizbullah and will not do anything to - as they think of it - "protect" Israel from attack. It is not a highly disciplined military with a reliable chain of command. If a Lebanese soldier fires at Hizbullah, the entire army could split into two warring factions, something the government and politicians will want to avoid at any cost.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:45 PM
Let's recall that Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni trumpeted UN Resolution 1701 as a "great victory" for Israel. It did nothing of the sort. Not only does Hezbollah still hold the kidnapped Israeli soldiers Ari Regev and Ehud Goldwasser hostage to this day, Iran has replenished much of Hezbollah's deadly arsenal lost in the last round of fighting in the summer of 2006. The same bozos who bungled the last war in Lebanon are still in charge in Israel and the last thing they want is to admit the war didn't resolve anything to the North. A blowup with Lebanon is only a matter of time. The only open question is whether that takes place on Hezbollah's or Israel's terms.
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I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
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1 Comments:
Let's recall that Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni trumpeted UN Resolution 1701 as a "great victory" for Israel. It did nothing of the sort. Not only does Hezbollah still hold the kidnapped Israeli soldiers Ari Regev and Ehud Goldwasser hostage to this day, Iran has replenished much of Hezbollah's deadly arsenal lost in the last round of fighting in the summer of 2006. The same bozos who bungled the last war in Lebanon are still in charge in Israel and the last thing they want is to admit the war didn't resolve anything to the North. A blowup with Lebanon is only a matter of time. The only open question is whether that takes place on Hezbollah's or Israel's terms.
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