Will Syria respond?
Lebanese blogger Ya Libnan speculates how Syria will respond to Israel's alleged raid on Deir al-Zur:Syria has said it will respond to the attack, though it remains to be seen how it will do so. My friend Andrew Tabler, the editor of Syria Today magazine, told me over the phone from Damascus that he thinks the response will be indirect. "The way the region is shaping up these days, if you want to send a message to Israel, the mailbox is in Lebanon," he said.I don't think Syria's in a position to respond. I think they realize that Israel will not make the same mistake twice and spare Syria if Israel is hit again by Hezbullah. And if Syria should learn anything from the success of the alleged Deir al-Zur raid, the lesson should be that it has no answer for the Israeli air force. Iran may have 600 Shihab missiles, but Israel has far better missile defenses than either Syria or Iran has. This is not the time for Syria to go to war.
That could mean a response from Hizballah. Israeli jets flew low over Hizballah territory in southern Lebanon today, causing sonic booms that were perhaps a warning against just such a scenario. But with Israel's patron, the United States, becoming increasingly involved in Lebanon's political crisis -- backing the government aginst the Hizballah-led opposition which is supported by Syria and Iran -- the response could also be against domestic Lebanese targets.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:07 AM
1 Comments:
People who start wars are rarely logical, and rarely think they'll lose.
Syria (and Iran) is insane, and insane entities can not be expected to adhere to logic.
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