Israel Matzav

But can he sell it to his 'people'?

An article in Friday's Jerusalem Post by Khaled Abu Toameh claims that even if 'moderate' 'Palestinian' President Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen reaches an agreement with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud K. Olmert, there is no chance that Abu Mazen will be able to sell the agreement to his 'people.'

A Palestinian leader who feels safer in Jerusalem, Paris and Washington than in Nablus and Jenin will never be able to deliver.

This is how a senior Fatah official in Ramallah reacted to this week's summit in Jerusalem between PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. The two leaders are said to have discussed, for the first time in seven years, "core" issues such as the status of Jerusalem, the final borders of the future Palestinian state and the "right of return" for Palestinian refugees scattered throughout the Arab world.

The last time Abbas was seen in Jenin, Nablus or other West Bank cities was on the eve of the January 2005 presidential election. Then, he toured many areas in the West Bank to seek the support of voters.

Earlier this month, he visited Jericho, but only to meet with Olmert in a hotel located on the southern outskirts of the sleepy town.

In recent months, especially after the Hamas takeover of the Gaza Strip, some Palestinians have been referring to Abbas jokingly as the mayor of Ramallah, since the only time he leaves the city is when he travels abroad. A visit to Nablus or a refugee camp in the West Bank remains out of the question, mainly for "security reasons," as one of his aides said this week.

...

ABBAS MAY be sincere in his efforts to talk peace with Israel and assert his control over the West Bank, but it's hard to imagine that he would be able to make crucial decisions on explosive issues concerning Jerusalem and the refugees. It's hard to imagine that he would be able to accept anything less than what was offered to Arafat at the botched Camp David summit in 2000.

Having lost the Gaza Strip and much of his credibility - not only among his constituents, but also among many Arabs and Muslims elsewhere - it's not even clear if Abbas has a mandate to represent the Palestinians at the US-sponsored Middle East peace conference due to be held later this year. Abbas is well-aware of this fact, which is why he announced this week that he would hold a national referendum on any agreement he reaches with Israel.

Given the current divisions among the Palestinians, the ongoing Hamas-Fatah power struggle, the growing mistrust of the US and Israel in the Arab world and Abbas's shaky status, it is highly unlikely that the PA chairman would be able to win the backing of a majority of his people for a US- backed deal.

So why should Israelis care what goes on between Olmert and Abu Mazen? Because everything Olmert offers Abu Mazen just becomes the starting point for the next round of 'negotiations.'

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:11 PM