Israel Matzav

Hamas planning major terror attack?

The Jerusalem Post reported yesterday that Hamas is planning a major terror attack in Judea and Samaria:

Yahiya Moussa, a member of the Hamas parliament in Gaza, said the organization did not change its policy regarding suicide attacks, Israel Radio reported Sunday evening.

He said reports aired in Israeli media earlier Sunday were meant to "set the ground for renewed Israeli violence against the Palestinians."

Moussa added, however, that Hamas was not in complete control over its activists and that "pressure against activists in the [West] Bank could lead bring about an explosion."

A Palestinian source in Ramallah contradicted Moussa, and confirmed that the leadership in Damascus had indeed instructed West Bank Hamas members to carry out a large-scale attack.

Earlier Sunday, the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) deputy director said at the cabinet meeting that Hamas leaders in Damascus have told the group's loyalists in the West Bank to carry out a large-scale terrorist attack inside Israel.

Due to Hamas's current frustrations, he said, there was an increased chance it would become more actively involved in carrying out attacks here and abroad.

Hamas, the official told the ministers, was irritated it had not been able to break out of its international isolation and had been unable to create a mechanism that would bring about dialogue with Fatah. The organization, he said, was also finding it increasingly difficult to effectively govern the Gaza Strip.

In addition, he said, there were increasing signs of economic separation between Gaza and the West Bank, with the economic situation in Gaza getting worse, while recently there had been some improvement in the West Bank's private economic sector.

"There is no real threat to Hamas in Gaza," the Shin Bet official added. "Its situation is stable."

Captain Ed says this morning that he believes that Hamas may try to carry out an attack against Israel in Judea and Samaria, but the response to that attack is likely to be in Gaza:

The only way to even the score is to provoke the Israelis into an attack. An attack on Gaza wouldn't help them unseat Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah in the West Bank, however; it would likely reinforce their position as the comparatively rational alternative to Hamas' terrorism. In order to discredit Abbas and to generate some sort of momentum for Hamas, the Islamists have to get Israel to attack the West Bank -- and further radicalize the populace in order to get them to turn to Hamas.

To ensure an Israeli response, the attack would have to be so large that the Israeli civilian government could not afford to ignore it. They would have to make themselves obvious in their origin in order to avoid the attack going against Gaza. Both of those conditions would emphasize civilian deaths and instant publicity, taunting the Israelis for a response.

The Israelis appear to have figured all of this out already. The likely public response will come against Gaza anyway.

Israel would be mistaken if it does what Captain Ed proposes. There are three reasons why - assuming that the 'Palestinians' attack Israel from Judea and Samaria (sometimes called the 'West Bank'), Israel's response can and should be at the source of the attack.

First, while 'polls' may indicate that the Arabs of Judea and Samaria are behind Fatah, one never knows the extent to which one can trust 'Palestinian' polls. And the reality is quite different. Hamas still has strong support in Judea and Samaria and still controls most of the municipal governments. Eventually, all of those people who say they are supporting Fatah are going to wake up and realize that nothing is different under Abu Mazen and Fayyad than it was under Arafat. It's still the same old Fatah corruption. In any event, 'Palestinian' governance is not necessarily put in place by polls. No one asked the 'Palestinians' if they wanted Hamas to take over Gaza either.

Second, it's not just Hamas that wants to get back together with Fatah. Fatah also wants to get back together with Hamas. To do that, Abu Mazen has been turning a blind eye to the cooperation that has been taking place between his own al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades and Hamas:

Top leaders of Fatah's Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades terror group told WND their organization the past few weeks carried out a series of joint attacks with Hamas against Israeli soldiers operating in the northern West Bank.

They said the Brigades and Hamas formed a new organization called the Fire Belt to attack Israel, and that this past weekend the new Fire Belt group worked together to lob grenades at Israeli forces operating in the vicinity of the northern West Bank city of Nablus.

...

Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades leaders in Nablus told WND the new Fire Belt group consists of Brigades members mostly from Nablus who are not on Olmert's official amnesty list.

Abu Nasser, a leader of the Brigades in Nablus and a self-declared top commander of the Fire Belt group with Hamas, told WND yesterday Fatah militants are "unified" with Hamas and that the two would attack Israel together.

"Fatah and Hamas are having diplomatic problems but that doesn't mean we are not unified in the battle against the (Israeli) occupation," he said.

"The Fire Belt will carry out many more attacks. We hope this cooperation will bring the two parties [Fatah and Hamas] to respect Palestinian unity and safeguard that unity. Our enemy is not Hamas, it is Israel," said Abu Nasser.

Abu Nasser is on a list of 152 Brigades members the PA recently presented to Israel for amnesty consideration as part of further Israeli gestures to bolster Abbas against Hamas.

Abu Nasser would not say where the funding for his new Hamas-Fatah terror group originates.

Palestinian security officials associated with Abbas said the Fire Belt receives most of its funding from Hamas and from the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah militia. The security officials claimed the new group was not coordinated with the Fatah leadership and was working to undermine Abbas. They claimed the Brigades, which took credit for scores of attacks the last few weeks, is committed to halting violence against Israel in line with the amnesty deal.

Of course, they claim it's not coordinated. If they admitted that it is coordinated, the Bush administration wouldn't be funding them anymore. Recall also that less than three weeks ago, Fatah 'accidentally' paid one year's worth of Hamas salaries. But Abu Mazen learned well from the master (Arafat) how to maintain 'plausible deniability.'

Third, it's apparent that Fatah and Hamas are working together. If Fatah is assisting in coordinating terror attacks in Judea and Samaria, there's no reason why it shouldn't suffer the consequences along with Hamas.

In sum, I believe that Hamas is planning a major terror attack, God forbid, and that Fatah is coordinating with them and will be taking part in the attack. Hopefully, Israel's 'security services' will thwart it. But if God forbid they don't and the attack comes from Judea or Samaria, there is no reason Israel should pull punches by only punishing Hamas in Gaza.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:19 PM