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Tuesday, February 06, 2007

The Mecca 'summit'

'Moderate' 'Palestinian President' Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen is meeting today in Mecca with Hamas politburo chief Khaled Meshaal and 'moderate' 'Palestinian Prime Minister' Ismail Haniyeh in a bid to form a unity government. The head of Israel's General Security Service, Yuval Diskin, has expressed concern that if they reach an agreement, Israel will be pressured to deal with a Hamas-led government that has not fulfilled the 'international community's' three conditions for negotiations: accepting Israel's right to exist, renouncing terrorism and accepting previously signed agreements between Israel and the 'Palestinians.'
"A national unity government will allow for the lifting of the financial blockade on Hamas and we will then see a massive flow of funds to the Palestinian government," he told military correspondents during an annual briefing at Shin Bet headquarters. Hamas, he added, would enjoy newly gained legitimacy and the international front against the group would crumble.
Dichter's concern is, if anything, understated. While the world looks for a fig leaf to allow it to deal with a Hamas-led 'unity' government, there is little doubt what that government - and for that matter any government led by Abu Mazen - stands for. As Abu Mazen himself said on his way to Egypt:
"We must unite the Hamas and Fatah blood in the struggle against Israel as we did at the beginning of the intifada. We want a political partnership with Hamas and we are not only optimistic, but also very serious about this. And that's why we're going to Mecca."
Diskin's prescription for dealing with a possible 'unity government' is not to interfere with what is going on in Gaza, and essentially to hope that the 'Palestinians' continue to do what they do best: kill each other.
He said that while Israel needed to prepare a contingency plan to deal with the Gaza Strip, now was not the time for a large-scale operation there.

"If we don't want to ruin everything then we should stay out of what is going on there," he said.

Before Israel launched such an operation, it needed to think about the "day after" and what would happen if the Palestinian Authority collapsed and no longer provided social services to the residents of Gaza, Diskin said. "If the PA collapses, then we will need to set up a Civil Administration in Gaza and care for the residents' welfare."

The parameters that needed to be taken into account before an IDF operation aimed at halting Hamas's military buildup inside Gaza were the pace of that buildup, the IDF's level of preparedness, and the violence between Fatah and Hamas. "Chaos in the PA does not serve Israel's interests," he said.
I disagree with Diskin. I believe that chaos in the PA does serve Israel's interests, because it prevents Fatah and Hamas from uniting to strike at Israel. Most of the Kassam attacks, as well as last week's terror attack in Eilat, are Islamic Jihad operations, with Fatah acting as a cheerleader (through the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades) and Hamas just looking on.

What's worse is that Israel is interfering and it is approving further interference by the United States. Israel is just not interfering militarily. Israel has agreed to turn over $100 million of 'withheld taxes' to Abu Mazen, while the United States has agreed to arm and finance the terrorist band known as Force 17. The US has agreed to give Abu Mazen some $86.4 million in aid, most of which will go to train terrorists (remember the CIA-trained 'Palestinian police' who became sharpshooting marksmen when the 'second intifadeh' started?), and just last week, an arms shipment to Abu Mazen's 'militias' wound up in Hamas' hands. Some neutrality!

The consequences of Israeli and American interference in the 'Palestinian' Civil War are likely to be bad news for Israel. First, if Abu Mazen is seen as winning the war because of Israeli and American interference, you can bet that every 'Palestinian' Arab terrorist in the world is going to be gunning for American and Israeli interests. It goes without saying that Abu Mazen, who would never cause a war with his fellow 'Palestinians,' will do nothing to stop them.

Second, if Abu Mazen wins the civil war, and Israel is seen as wanting him to win the civil war, Israel will be forced to once again regard him as its 'peace partner.' But Abu Mazen, as seen above, and as I have shown in other posts recently, is not interested in 'peace.' He is interested in piece by piece. He shares Hamas' goal of destroying the Jewish state, and differs with them only on tactics (if that).

Third, if there is a clear winner in the 'Palestinian' civil war, whether it is Abu Mazen or anyone else, it is highly likely that most of the terrorists will unite behind that winner, and will become a standing army in addition to carrying out terror operations.

Fourth, if the 'Palestinian' civil war goes away, it will enable the 'Palestinians' to unite and focus their guns on Israel, which is what Abu Mazen called for in his January 11 speech:
While sitting here with you, I heard shots fired in the air, and this is something that must be opposed. Gunshots [fired at] a brother, neighbor, friend or member of the opposing faction is something that must be opposed. We must not accept the slogan '[they] are Shi'ites.' We are one people, and even if there are differences of opinion among us, the homeland unites us. We are brothers, and we [must] not reject anyone or accuse the other of heresy... [We] must not [spill] Palestinian blood. Dialogue is the only language we must use among ourselves. Since our struggle began and until our homeland was liberated, we [always] aimed our guns at the occupation, and that is our legitimate right, but we must not aim our guns at one another..." [3]
Diskin is wrong - chaos in the 'Palestinian Authority' is exactly what Israel needs. The alternative is a cohesive terrorist force raising its guns at the State of Israel.

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