Israel Matzav

Israel seeking air corridors to attack Iran?

A report in yesterday's London Daily Telegraph claims that Israel has sought United States permission to fly over Iraq in order to reach Iranian nuclear facilities by air:

A senior Israeli defence official said negotiations were now underway between the two countries for the US-led coalition in Iraq to provide an "air corridor" in the event of the Israeli government deciding on unilateral military action to prevent Teheran developing nuclear weapons.

"We are planning for every eventuality, and sorting out issues such as these are crucially important," said the official, who asked not to be named.

"The only way to do this is to fly through US-controlled air space. If we don't sort these issues out now we could have a situation where American and Israeli war planes start shooting at each other."

Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh is denying the Telegraph story:

Calling the report "baseless," Sneh, the highest-ranking Israeli official to comment Saturday, claimed that the publication was meant to divert the world's attention from the need to impose sanctions on Iran. The international community's focus should be on imposing economic sanctions on Iran for defying UN Security Council resolutions, he said.

"No request to coalition forces was made by Israel," Sneh said. "This publication is meant to try to make Israel the one responsible for solving the Iranian problem."

Today, Haaretz is reporting, based on a report in the Kuwaiti Arabic daily Al-Siyasa, that Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates that they would have no objection to Israel using their air space to attack Iran:

According to the report, a diplomat from one of the gulf states visiting Washington on Saturday said the three states, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, have told the United States that they would not object to Israel using their airspace, despite their fear of an Iranian response.

Al-Siyasa further reported that NATO leaders are urging Turkey to open its airspace for an Attack on Iran as well and to also open its airports and borders in case of a ground attack.

One country that apparently won't be asked is Jordan, with which Israel has a 'peace treaty.'

While Sneh rejected the validity of the report, the quickest and most convenient route to Iran would be over Jordan and Iraq. According to Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Shlomo Brom of the Institute for National Security Studies from Tel Aviv University, Israel would be best off flying the longer route over the Indian Ocean with minimal penetration of other states' airspace. Israel could also jeopardize the entire mission by asking Jordan or the US for permission prior to the flights.

"Flying through Jordan without the explicit or implicit permission of the Jordanians would hurt relations with a friendly Arab state," Brom wrote in a recent article in the book Getting Ready for a Nuclear Iran. "Flying over Iraq without coordination with the United States would lead to a clash with US interceptors."

I don't think Sneh's denial is credible. No one here believes sanctions will work. The only question in most Israelis' minds is whether the US will play along or whether we will go it alone. For the Bush administration, passive support for an Israeli attack may be the best way out of a quandry in which on the one hand they want to do something about Iran, while on the other hand the President lacks the domestic support to do the job himself for at least the next year to year and a half. Jordan won't be asked because the rump king Abdullah fears that his 'Palestinians' will rise up and overthrow him if he even tacitly supports an Israeli operation. Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates are all US allies and wealthy countries that have much to fear from Iran, and they may actually want Ahmadinadinnerjacket to know that they won't sit by and allow him to threaten them.

That doesn't mean that I expect an attack next week. Indeed, I find it hard to believe that the Olmert-Peretz-Livni government will attack at all. But I expect a war with Hezbullah late this spring, and if the Iranians interfere (and I believe they will), I would look for an attack on them in the late summer or early fall.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:06 PM