Israel Matzav

Will we all flee to Eilat this time?

This past summer, the incompetent Peretz-Livni-Olmert government stood by and abandoned Israel's northern residents to their own means. The northerners fled south, with many of them winding up in the center of the country. Those who had no place to go stayed in bomb shelters for a month.

As most of you know already, Hezbullah is trying to pull off a coup in Lebanon, and if they succeed, there will be no impediments to them resuming last summer's war. In fact, thanks to Olmert's and Livni's incompetence in accepting UN Security Council Resolution 1701 (maybe Livni just didn't understand what it said), an Israeli military intelligence assessment now says that not only has Hezbullah succeeded in rebuilding its missile supply under the watchful eye of UNIFIL, it is actually better off than it was last summer.

Long-range missiles as well as truckloads of advanced anti-tank missiles originating in Iran and Syria have been smuggled to Hizbullah in Lebanon during the past four months since the war ended this summer, The Jerusalem Post has learned. [Recall that the majority of the IDF casualties in Lebanon last summer were caused by anti-tank missiles. CiJ]

The IDF destroyed most of Hizbullah's long-range missile array during the month-long war, including the Iranian-made Fajr and Zelzal. But according to new intelligence obtained by the defense establishment, Hizbullah has received in the four months since the war, weapon convoys carrying short-range missiles, anti-tank missiles and long-range missiles. Most of the weapon convoys crossed into Lebanon from Syria at night. [According to the Jerusalem Post, Hezbullah now has new Zelzal-2 missiles with a range of 210km; enough to reach Jerusalem and Beer Sheva. CiJ]

With the increasing possibility that Hizbullah protests, launched in Beirut on Friday, will topple the US-backed government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Saniora, the Israeli defense establishment had decided not to take any chances and on Sunday raised the level of alert in the North. Israel is concerned that the Lebanese instability will ignite the situation along the Israel's northern border. [It sounds like they should be doing a lot more than that. CiJ]

Hizbullah, Military Intelligence believes, might use the Lebanese political instability as an excuse to launch attacks against Israel, not necessarily by renewing Katyusha rocket attacks - 4,000 rockets were fired at Israel during the 34-day war this past summer - but by firing anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli aircraft which fly over Lebanon to collect intelligence.

Hizbullah "nature reserves" - camouflaged underground systems of tunnels and bunkers used as hideouts for guerrillas - are still operating in southern Lebanon despite the beefed up presence of UNIFIL and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) south of the Litani River. These areas are designated as "closed military zones" for UNIFIL and the LAF and are used as training centers for Hizbullah as well as storehouses for their weapons and rocket caches.

While UNIFIL and the LAF presence in southern Lebanon has forced Hizbullah to conceal its weapons, MI does not believe that the multinational force is not an "obstacle" for the guerrilla Shi'ite group [That should probably read "MI does not believe that the the multinational force is an obstacle. CiJ]. If Saniora's government falls, MI does not foresee UNIFIL being automatically expelled from Lebanon but rather the sponsor countries, including Italy and France, having to decide whether they will pull their troops out or not.

Hizbullah, MI has learned, has been using the post-war period to rehabilitate its armed wing. MI believes that "sooner or later" Hizbullah will resume military operations against Israel in the form of mortar and rocket attacks on northern Israeli communities as well as kidnapping attempts along the border.

I want you to especially note the part that I highlighted in red: Hezbullah has training centers and storehouses that are 'closed military zones' to which UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army have no access. Some 'peacekeepers.'

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:55 AM