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Monday, December 25, 2006

US stopped arms and technology transfers to Israel

If even half of this report is true, we have a serious problem.

Middle East Newsline is reporting that the United States has blocked all arms and technology shipments to Israel since the end of September.
Israeli and U.S. sources said the State Department has blocked the transfer of weapons and technology to the Jewish state over the last three months. The sources said the halt reflected deteriorating relations between the two countries since the end of the war in Lebanon in August 2006.

"Nobody will say openly that there is a problem," a government source said. "But there is a serious problem that reflects the marginalization of Israel in U.S. strategy."

The unofficial suspension of U.S. arms deliveries began in late September, the sources said. They said the suspension halted the airlift of air-to-ground and other munitions conducted during and immediately after the Israeli war with Hizbullah.
It's no secret that the US was not happy with Israel's performance in the war this summer - I've discussed that many times, and most recently here. But there's a big difference between being unhappy over a war's outcome and not depending on a country when planning strategy on the one hand, and cutting that country off altogether and leaving it to the wolves on the other hand. This has serious implications - especially regarding who is going to take care of Iran's nuclear program. The US apparently has no motivation to do so.

But Ehud Olmert continues to fiddle....

6 Comments:

At 11:39 PM, Blogger M. Simon said...

By not taking on Syria and thus possibly forcing a show down with Iran, Olmert & Co. threw the US to the wolves.

Israel got screwed by its leaders.

Isn't it time Israel got a new government before US policy becomes a disaster for Israel?

 
At 1:14 AM, Blogger Carl in Jerusalem said...

We'd love to get a new government. But it's no longer as easy as it used to be.

But your analogy doesn't really hold water. The US's existence is not up for grabs here.

 
At 2:34 AM, Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

actually by cutting israel loose, it will give the USA "plausible deniability" when israel does something to Iran

 
At 4:44 AM, Blogger Dave in Pa said...

Here's my hypothesis, which I'd like to get some feedback on:

Is it possible this stopping of arms & tech transfers is a subtle push by the Bush Administration to indirectly help the anti-Olmert & Co. forces oust this disastrously incompetent government?

Here's my interpretation of a possible US motivation for so acting. What could have been the outcome if Olmert & Co. had taken on Syria? The destruction of the Syrian armed forces, perhaps the Assad Regime, pulling in Iran, which the US then could have militarily intervened, INCLUDING eliminating it's nuclear facilities and perhaps the Mullah regime itself.

All this hinged upon Israel initially making a vigorous military attack in Lebanon and in Syria. The sequence of events would then force Iran to intervene on Syria and Hezbollah's behalf or face the destruction of Hezbollah and it's toadie-satellite, Assad's Syria.

That intervention would have quickly brought in the US, who's air and naval air power would have at least obliterated the Iranian nuclear facilities and the Iranian Air Force and Navy.

The consequences of that in Iran would mean either a castrated Mullah dictatorship or an overthrown Mullah dictatorship.

This of course didn't happen. Olmert instead played at war in a Clintonesque manner, allowing the Islamofascist enemies of Israel, America and the West to sidestep a catastrophic defeat.

Given this as what could have been the versus the unsavory reality of the outcome, the cost of the Olmert government's failure is truly historic with global consequences.

That could have caused the American leadership at highest levels to decide that anything they can do to shorten the days of the Olmert government are to everyone's ultimate interest.

Anyhow, that's my hypothesis. I'd value some feedback and comments on this.

 
At 8:36 AM, Blogger Carl in Jerusalem said...

Dave,

Your hypothesis is correct, except that the arms have been cut off for three months. This is the first report I have seen (and I think I'm pretty up-to-date), which means that the average Israeli doesn't see the cause and effect. Olmert continues to tell them how much Bush loves him (and even kisses Bush's butt by saying how much the US accomplished in Iraq), and Mrs. Cohen in Hadera (the average Israeli) doesn't know any better but to believe him.

 
At 8:51 AM, Blogger ShumBaayaMyLord said...

Dave in PA, the scenario you present is plausible but only in parts. The US would have needed a fair chunk of USN carrier battle group support pretty much right there on hand in the region to undertake the kind of strikes on Iran you suggest might have been in the offing. That kind of American flotilla didn't show up in the Persian Gulf until over month after UNSCR 1701 went into effect.

Carl posted a few days earlier part of an interview with Meyrav Wurmser, whose husband David is (I think) on-staff with US VP Dick Cheney; Meyrav pretty much made it clear that, indeed, the US was giving Israel all the international diplomatic breathing-room it could come up with, in order that the IDF devote a portion of its firepower to the obliteration of the Assad regime. Your conjectures may have had their genesis in that Wurmser interview.

Carl, the government needs changing by force. The least bad way to channel this effort is via the JCPA/Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs plus The Shalem Center--everyone in those two places should be getting the word out to everyone they can convince in Tsahal. The Knesset itself is rotten to the proverbial 80-percent level, and the Supreme Court is proving at best irrelevant to national security never mind more prosaic national judicial well-being.

Let's put Yaalon in charge, accompanied by Bibi, Yuval Steinitz, Dan Meridor, Beni Begin (if possible), Gila Finkelstein, Mishael Cheshin, etc.--with Sharansky as President (since I hear he can't run a ministry to save his life). This joke just isn't funny any more.

 

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