Israel Matzav

The Jewish vote: It may have been more Republican than you think

Richard Baehr has a fascinating analysis of the Jewish vote in the most recent US elections, and demographic trends within the Jewish community generally. After citing the same 87% survey that I quoted here, Baehr points out something I didn't know: that it was a sample of only 200 people. (In fact, if you look in the comment section of my post linked above, you will see that one commenter had already seen different polling numbers). Baehr goes on to highlight some Jewish voting trends and what they portend for the future:

The same day the national voter survey data was made available, the RJC released a survey of a much larger sample of Jews conducted by Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates in three states and Congressional districts with close races this past week. The sample consisted of 400 Jewish voters in New Jersey (US Senate race won by Democrat Bob Menendez), 300 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania 6 (a close House race for a district including mostly western suburban areas of Philadelphia won by Republican Jim Gerlach) and 300 Jewish voters in Florida 22 (a close House race in a district covering mostly the eastern portion of Palm Beach and Broward Counties, won by Democrat challenger Ron Klein). The two House districts both have a substantial Jewish population, especially Florida 22, and New Jersey is approximately 5% Jewish, tied with Maryland for the 2nd highest Jewish population percentage after New York State. The RJC survey suggested that the 2006 Jewish voting pattern closely resembled that in 2004: 26% support for Republicans in the House races, and 27% in the Senate contest (there were also Senate races in Pennsylvania and Florida this year).

The Finkelstein survey of 1,000 Jewish voters interviewed both older and younger voters, and members of the different Jewish branches in America – reform, conservative and orthodox. Age and the branch of Judaism, both seemed to matter a lot in the 2004 survey results, and they did again this year: the more often a Jew attended synagogue, the more likely he or she was to vote Republican. Similarly, younger Jews, and in particular younger Jewish males, were much more likely to vote Republican. Orthodox Jews were more than twice as likely to vote Republican as Reform Jews.

None of this is surprising. The degree of religious affiliation has been positively correlated with the likelihood of voting Republican for other religious groups in the country as well. Over time, changes in the composition of the Jewish community will impact how Jews vote. The trends are likely to favor Republicans.

Orthodox Jewish women have a much higher birth rate than less observant Jewish women. Twenty percent of Jews under age 5 are now in Orthodox families, while the total Jewish population is 10-12% Orthodox. This means that in future years, the Orthodox percentage of the Jewish population will increase, and their population will comprise a younger group than less observant Jews, who will decline as a percentage of the total Jewish population. Both trends – higher percentage of Orthodox, and the average or median age disparity – are likely to lead to a higher Jewish support level for Republicans in the future.

It should only happen real soon!

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:26 PM