Game changing plans
In today's Washington Post, columnist Jackson Diehl laments the fact that neither the Olmert-Peretz-Livni government nor the Bush administration has a new and bold initiative to put on the table ahead of this week's UN General Assembly meeting, which would fill the vacuum left by the collapse of the Sharon-OlmertBoth Olmert's government and the Bush administration know that this would be the ideal moment to put a new, game-changing plan on the table. But as a visit to Washington last week by Olmert's foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, made clear, they haven't got one. Livni spent hours in conversation with Bush, Vice President Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other senior officials, with the goal of coordinating positions before the expected onslaught of diplomacy at the United Nations. The bottom line, one official said, is that "there will be no major diplomatic initiative."Mr. Diehl says that the lack of an initiative is because we are in the aftermath of a war that was one of the "unforeseen consequences" of Sharon's strategy. Well, that war was foreseen by nearly every Israeli to the right of the
Why the paralysis? There are some important substantive reasons, including the simple fact that the end of Israeli unilateralism means an Arab partner is needed -- and the Palestinian Authority is not ready for a serious peace process. Since Israel withdrew from Gaza a year ago, neither President Mahmoud Abbas nor the rival Hamas movement has been able to gain control over an increasingly anarchic territory.
There are also powerful political problems here and in Israel. With his presidential capital rapidly waning, Bush is focused on finding solutions for Iraq. Trying to solve the Middle East's most intractable conflict on top of that is a stretch. Olmert's government is reeling from the war in Lebanon, besieged by critics who say he failed to deliver on promises to cripple Hezbollah or that he squandered the lives of the scores of Israelis who were killed. For the next few months, at least, he will be focused simply on surviving in office.
Bush and Livni consequently found themselves watching with a mixture of apprehension and dismay last week as the usually passive Palestinians launched a Sharonesque gambit. Abbas announced that he had struck a deal with Hamas and other factions on a "unity government" that he would discuss with Bush at a meeting this week at the United Nations. Hamas leaders, meanwhile, floated an even bolder backup plan: dissolving the Palestinian Authority, which could force Israel to resume its occupation.
The Palestinian leadership knows that the still-evolving unity pact isn't likely to impress either Olmert or Bush, since it almost certainly won't commit Hamas or the new government to formal recognition of Israel or an unqualified renunciation of violence. But if it goes forward it will be a fresh initiative -- and it could break the current international embargo on the Palestinian Authority, by persuading European governments to renew subsidies that cover half of the authority's payroll. Western governments and Israel would be reduced to arguing with each other, rather than pressing for a Palestinian government that could make peace.
But I have an idea for a game changing plan. Mr. Diehl isn't likely to like it. Neither will the State Department hacks. But after November, Mr. Bush may be ready to hear it. And much of Israel is ready for it. My idea is for the US to throw its full support behind Israel like it does for every other ally, and for Israel (with American approval) to pay those Arabs who are not willing to live in peace in Israel to leave the country and go live elsewhere. I'm sure that there are lots of fellow Islamists in Western Europe who would be happy to have them as neighbors.
Bold? Game changing? I challenge you to tell me that it isn't.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:40 PM
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