Israel Matzav

US and France agree on cease fire resolution

The US and France have agreed on a cease fire resolution that will be presented to the UN Security Council later today or tomorrow. For those who have not seen it already, the full text is available here. I want to highlight a few paragraphs and comment on them. But my reaction to this is that even if this resolution is adopted in the next day or two, the war is a long way from over:

OP1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;

Hezbullah has already said that they will continue to fight so long as Israeli soldiers are in Lebanon. There is no call here for an Israeli withdrawal. That doesn't mean Hezbullah will continue to fight, since Nasrallah has been pushing for a cease fire because he is getting creamed and he knows it. But I believe that Hezbullah will continue to fight, enough that the IDF will be able to continue to operate. An 'Israeli official' confirmed that this evening. Don't forget that both Israel and Hezbullah (and possibly Lebanon's 'government') would have to accept the resolution in order for it to take effect, and Hezbullah has already said that it would reject the resolution because it does not call for an immediate Israeli withdrawal. That will likely cause the Lebanese government to reject it too.

Also, Israel's ambassador to the UN, Danny Gillerman points out that the Russians may yet try to introduce changes, since they will not be pleased with not having been part of the drafting process.

OP4. Calls on the international community to take immediate steps to extend its financial and humanitarian assistance to the Lebanese people, including through facilitating the safe return of displaced persons and, under the authority of the Government of Lebanon, reopening airports and harbours for verifiably and purely civilian purposes, and calls on it also to consider further assistance in the future to contribute to the reconstruction and development of Lebanon;

Note - government of Lebanon and not Hezbullah. If there is such a thing.

OP5. Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty and authority;

OP6. Calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution based on the following principles and elements:

...

- delineation of the international borders of Lebanon, especially in those areas where the border is disputed or uncertain, including in the Chebaa farms area;

Note that the resolution does not call for Israel to withdraw from the area nor does it make the Syrians - who claim it and whose claim the UN recognizes - a party to the negotiations.

- security arrangements to prevent the resumption of hostilities, including the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the Lebanese armed and security forces and of UN mandated international forces deployed in this area;

- full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006) that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state;

Again, there are two issues here: can (and will) the Lebanese government implement its authority against Hezbullah's will, and how much influence will Hezbullah continue to to have within the Lebanese government. The answers to those questions do not give cause for optimism.

OP10. Expresses its intention, upon confirmation to the Security Council that the Government of Lebanon and the Government of Israel have agreed in principle to the principles and elements for a long-term solution as set forth in paragraph 6 above, and subject to their approval, to authorize in a further resolution under Chapter VII of the Charter the deployment of a U.N. mandated international force to support the Lebanese armed forces and government in providing a secure environment and contribute to the implementation of a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution;

OP11. Requests UNIFIL, upon cessation of hostilities, to monitor its implementation and to extend its assistance to help ensure humanitarian access to civilian populations and the safe return of displaced persons;

UNIFIL is completely toothless. But the "U.N. mandated international force" is supposed to be something else. Let's see if it really is. When and if it happens.

What is missing here is any mention of the unconditional release of the two Israeli soldiers that Hezbullah kidnapped on July 12. I would love to hear whether US ambassador John Bolton has anything to say on that subject, but my guess is that calling for their unconditional release would lead to Hezbullah saying no for sure. On the other hand, not calling for their unconditional release is going to make it very difficult for Israel to say yes. But I don't think Israel will need to say yes or no - it sounds like Hezbullah is going to solve that problem for us.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:39 AM