Israel Matzav

Kidnapping in Lebanon part of Hezbullah - Hamas rivalry

I'm sure that when many Israelis heard news of the Hezbullah attack and kidnapping this morning, they thought that Hezbullah was trying to alleviate IDF pressure on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. But according to many experts, that is not the case.

According to those experts, what motivated Hezbullah, and its leader Hassan Nasrallah, was Nasrallah's desire to remain relevant. Nasrallah watched the proceedings in Gaza and feared that Hezbullah, its position in the Arab world and in the fight with Israel, and its prisoners being held in Israel, would be forgotten. Now that Nasrallah arranged the abduction, he is attempting to maneuver the IDF into negotiating a joint prisoner swap with both the two soldiers kidnapped today and IDF Corporal Gilad Shalit being in the mix. Of course, Nasrallah is attempting to install himself as chief negotiator for both Hezbullah and Hamas.

Hamas is furious about this. They are being bumped off the stage. Their negotiations have failed. Nasrallah is suddenly in charge.

The only cost to Nasrallah is if the IDF inflicts damage in Lebanon. If that happens there may be a price for Nasrallah to pay. The Lebanese may blame him. Otherwise, he gets away with it.

Israel knows that this is its chance to force Nasrallah to pay that price. And it's the only chance they may have to find the kidnapped soldiers. It took four years and cost hundreds of prisoners to free the dead bodies of the last three IDF soldiers kidnapped in Lebanon. We still don't know the fate of Israeli navigator Ron Arad nearly twenty years after he was shot down in Lebanon. We still don't know the fate of two of the soldiers who were captured in the battle of Sultan Yaqub in 1982.

Israel has to hit Hezbullah and Lebanon and hit them hard. Otherwise, we will see more kidnappings and more Katyushas shot over our borders. Or R"L (God forbid) worse....

For more on this subject, go here.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:31 PM