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Thursday, June 08, 2006

Jordan's Abdullah fears a 'Palestinian' state

Ehud Olmert will meet with Jordanian King Abdullah today in Amman to try to allay Abdullah's fears about Olmert's convergence consolidation realignment surrender and expulsion plans to draw a West Bank border if negotiations with the 'Palestinians' fail. Olmert is not likely to win Abdullah over.

As I noted yesterday, Abdullah fears that his rump country will be overrun with 'Palestinians' - who already make up close to 70% of the population - and therefore he keeps shouting to anyone who can hear that Jordan will not become a 'substitute' for a 'Palestinian homeland.' Yet, there is nothing that Abdullah fears more than a 'Palestinian homeland.' And for good reason.

Abdullah fears that Israel will walk away from Judea and Samaria, leaving what Herb Keinon, writing in today's Jerusalem Post, calls "Gaza in the West Bank." Abdullah fears that if Israel completes the 'security fence' and walks away from Judea and Samaria, they will be left with a landlocked area with chronic unemployment, poverty, chaos and a corrupt and/or Islamic dominated government. Abdullah fears that with Israel closed off by the 'security fence,' and no economic outlet within 'Palestine,' the 'Palestinians' would push their way into Jordan, making Abdullah's Bedouin tribes an even smaller minority with an even more tenuous hold on power. Moreover, the 'Palestinians' will likely include Islamists, and Jordan's government is 'secular' and we all know what that means in Dar el Islam. Jordan also has very poor relations with Hamas and has already accused them of trying to undermine the Kingdom's stability.

Given that Jordan also borders on Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia, they are in tough neigborhood. And if God forbid, Israel were to be nuked by Iran, the fallout would likely affect Jordan. Personally, under some circumstances, I wouldn't mind seeing Abdullah go in a coup. It couldn't happen to a nicer guy. But only if it doesn't put another Iran on our borders.

In any event, you all know already that I am opposed to Olmert's convergence consolidation realignment surrender and expulsion plans to draw a West Bank border if negotiations with the 'Palestinians' fail for reasons that have nothing to do with Jordan.

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