Election Primer - Part 4
Friday is poll day in Israel, and since I haven't updated you on the elections in a while, I thought I should do that. For those of you who did not read it when I published it, you should read Pollsters Fill Out the Forms Themselves before reading this. Then you'll take both the polls and this analysis with the proper grain of salt.I have three different sets of polls for you. The JPost's Smith Institute poll, Ynet's Yedioth Aharonoth - Dahaf poll, and Arutz Sheva's poll - an average of the four existing polls.
This is the fourth consecutive week that
A Smith Institute poll conducted for The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday revealed that Kadima had fallen to a new low of 36-37 Knesset seats, a loss of two mandates in the last week and four in the past three weeks.
The poll found that the Likud and Labor had not gained at Kadima's expense. The Likud remained at 17 seats, despite Likud chairman Binyamin Netanyahu's success in changing the party's election system. Labor continued its slight downward slide to 16-17 seats.
Kadima chairman Ehud Olmert responded to the polls in a press conference at Beit Hanassi, even though President Moshe Katsav asked that political questions not be asked.
"It's right that in certain polls there has been a little downturn, but I am sure that no one doubts who will form the next government," Olmert said.
In a press conference set for Sunday, Kadima strategists Lior Chorev, Reuven Adler and Eyal Arad will reveal the party's television commercials that will present Netanyahu as a man who cannot handle pressure. People who worked closely with Netanyahu when he was prime minister will speak in the commercials about his failure in pressure situations, like the failed assassination of Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal.
...
Olmert met on Thursday with Shas chairman Eli Yishai and the two reportedly discussed the possibility of Shas joining a Kadima-led coalition. With Israel Beiteinu and United Torah Judaism already considered a lock to join the coalition, Kadima officials said that if the party wins the March 28 election, a coalition will already be formed by Pessah, which starts April 12. [I find it hard to believe that Israel Beiteinu will join any coalition that has unilateral
withdrawalsexpulsions of Jews as part of its agenda. And I find it hard to believe that United Torah Judaism will join a coalition that sets civil marriages as one of its goals. But stranger things have happened here. CiJ]
Former coalition chairman Gideon Sa'ar on Thursday expressed confidence that the Right would be able to obtain the 61 mandates necessary to prevent Kadima from forming a coalition. Likud MK Silvan Shalom said he believed the Likud and Labor should join together to block Kadima, but Netanyahu rejected the idea. According to the Post poll, the Right will have some 50 MKs in the next Knesset: 17 from the Likud, 9-10 each from the National Union-National Religious Party and Shas, 8 from Israel Beiteinu and 5-6 from UTJ. The Left will have about 30: 16-17 from Labor, 4-5 from Meretz and 8-9 from Arab parties. The percentage of undecided voters rose significantly from 10 percent to 14%. The poll sampled a representative 501 people of voting age. The margin of error was 3.5%. [And the real key is the undecided number. That could change everything. CiJ] YNet's poll numbers are pretty close to the JPost's:
The latest pre-election poll by Yedioth Ahronoth and Mina Tzemach's Dahaf Institute shows frontrunner Kadima dropping by two Knesset seats and winning 39 were elections held today.
Meanwhile, right-wing parties Likud and Israel Our Home went up by a combined three seats, while Labor went down by one seat and currently stands at 19 mandates.
The survey results were published Friday morning in Yedioth Ahronoth.
According to the poll, Likud would win 16 seats, Shas would win 10, and Israel Our Home, led by Avigdor Lieberman, would win 9 seats, up two from last week. [Israel Our Home = Yisrael Beiteinu. CiJ]
The newly united National Religious Party and National Union won eight seats in the survey, while Meretz and United Torah Judaism won five seats each. The three Arab parties combined for nine seats.
...
The survey also showed the Likud is moving upward. Thirty percent of Likud voters who left said they tend to return to their old party should Netanyahu's recent proposed reforms be approved and the powerful Central Committee be stripped of its power to choose the party's Knesset list.
However, 39 percent of Likud backers blame Netanyahu for the apparent Likud collapse, while 34 percent blame the Central Committee. Overall, only 21 percent of respondents said they thought Bibi's proposed Central Committee reform aimed to first and foremost fight corruption, with 37 percent saying it is meant to allow Bibi to gain more power and 38 percent saying the Likud leader aimed to get more votes for the party. [The Likud reforms were passed this week. CiJ].
YNet also deals with the undecided issue:
Finally, Arutz Sheva sums up all the results:
The poll also reveals that 12 percent of the voters, worth 14 Knesset seats, said that they have yet to decide which party to vote for.
Up to two weeks ago, the portion of the undecided voters was smaller. However, it is a well-known phenomenon that the number of undecided voters tends to increase as the elections approach, and decreases a few days before Election Day.
The survey respondents were also asked whether there is a chance that the election broadcast [The half hour election commercials that begin running this coming week on television and radio. CiJ] would change their voting.
About 70 percent said that there is no chance they would change their voting following the broadcasts, while 19 percent said there is a small chance, 8 percent said that there is a moderate chance, and only 3 percent said that there is a big chance that they would change their voting after watching the broadcasts.
Four major surveys taken at the end of the week show the following results for the three largest parties:Personally, I'd prefer to somehow see a government formed without Kadima. But the only ways that can happen is if something drastic happens R"L or if the polls are really wrong. I don't believe in any of the 'blocking' scenarios. After the last election, the NRP was supposed to have an agreement not to go into Sharon's government without the Haredi parties because they were afraid that the Religious Affairs ministry would be dismantled. The NRP went in to the government and dismantled the Religious Affairs ministry - its own handiwork - with its own hands. Then they put off leaving the government over the 'disengagement' long enough to allow it to pass and to allow United Torah Judaism to go into the government to recover lost funding for its institutions while saying with a straight face that they were not the cause of the 'disengagement' (they weren't - Sharon prevented it from coming up for any kind of vote that would undo it once United Torah Judaism was in the government).
Kadima - 36-39 Knesset seats
Likud - 15-18
Labor - 19-21
National Union/NRP - 9-11
The other parties continue to remain basically steady, with Shas forecast to win 10 Knesset seats, Yisrael Beiteinu 9-11, Meretz 5-6, United Torah Judaism 5-6, and the three Arab parties a total of 7-9.
The right-wing camp - comprising Likud, NU/NRP, Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu, and UTJ - is therefore currently expecting 48-56 seats. Right-wing activists are working actively in a face-to-face campaign to increase the camp's representation, hoping to form a "blocking bloc" of at least 60 MKs [half the Knesset] to prevent a left-wing government from being formed.
I cannot tell you what will happen on March 28. But there's a long way to go between now and then. Hang in there and don't give up hope regardless of whom you support.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:48 PM
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