Israel Matzav

After counting 99% of the votes, Kadima gets 28 seats

With 99 percent of the ballots counted, the election results for the 17th Knesset appeared as follows:

Kadima: 28 Knesset seats

Labor: 20

Shas: 13

Likud: 11

Israel Beitenu: 12

NRP / NU: 9

Pensioners: 7

United Torah Judaism: 6

Meretz: 4

Balad: 3

Hadash: 3

United Arab List: 4

According to the three major television exit polls, Midgam company for Israel Television's Channel 1, Dahaf Institute for Channel 2 and Professor Camille Fuchs for Channel 10, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's Kadima Party emerged as the winner in the 2006 election, taking 29-32 seats in the 17th Knesset. [Note how all the exit polls were once again tilted left. Unfortunately, this time, the gap between left and right was too big to make up. CiJ]

The outcome of the exit polls set up a possible center-left bloc of 60-67 seats, consisting of pro-disengagement parties Kadima 29-32, Labor 20-22, Meretz 5, and the Arab parties 6-8.

The right-wing bloc of Likud, National Union-NRP, Israel Beiteinu, Shas and United Torah Judaism won 46-52 seats (Likud 11-12; National Union-NRP 8-9; Israel Beiteinu 12-14; Shas 10-11; United Torah Judaism 5-6), not enough to keep Olmert from forming a government.

Olmert associates, however, have already said that as far as future coalitions were concerned, the Arab parties would not be invited. On the same note, it is not out of the question that Shas and, or United Torah Judaism could join a coalition with Kadima. Furthermore, Israel Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman said following his party's strong showing that, "We would consider all offers, but we will not abandon our principles." [It's not clear to me what principles Lieberman has, if any. He used to be a right wing party - Lieberman was once Director General of Netanyahu's office when the latter was Prime Minister. But Lieberman has already said that he would join any coalition. I find the fact that he won twelve seats astounding. CiJ]

The surprise of the election was the Gil pensioners' party, led by 79-year-old former senior Mossad agent Rafi Eitan, which won 6-8 seats. Kadima officials expressed an interest in including in the coalition the party whose main demand is benefits for Israel's senior citizens. The party's MKs will have freedom to vote their conscience on diplomatic issues, according to the party platform. [This is also amazing. I don't know how this party - or Labor for that matter - will go into the coalition unless Olmert rolls back all of Netanyahu's economic achievements as Finanace Minister. Even Olmert realizes that doing that would be financially disasterous for the country. CiJ]

The accuracy of the TV exit poll has been marred in the past, most memorably in 1996 when it incorrectly showed Shimon Peres to have narrowly defeated Binyamin Netanyahu for the prime ministership. Final results are expected to flow in the course of the night.

Likud head Netanyahu is expected to visit the party's gathering at the Tel Aviv Fairgrounds after midnight to announce his political future after the party won its lowest number of seats since its predecessor, Herut, won only 15 seats in 1955. [Netanyahu has made the mistake of resigning once already when Likud did not do well in 1999. That's what brought Sharon to power. Hopefully he won't make that mistake again. CiJ]

Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu party won 12-14 seats, making it the third largest party in the next Knesset. Lieberman has expressed an interest in joining any coalition formed despite his opposition to Olmert's convergence plan. [Actually, this was wrong. Shas is the third largest party. You won't see the mainstream media harping on that too much. Shas' electorate is very right wing. While its posek - Rav Ovadiah Yosef - has said in the past that withdrawing from land is permitted, he has only supported doing so in the context of a real peace agreement. I don't expect for him to jump into Olmert's coalition without being convinced that there are some security benefits to the convergence expulsion plan. For that matter, I would not take the convergence expulsion plan to be a foregone conclusion either. Olmert still has not managed to house the 9000 Jews he expelled from their homes in Gaza last summer. Where does he think he will house 100,000 more? CiJ]

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:16 AM